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NFL Week 5: Bills @ 49ers – SportsUntapped.com
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Added October 5th, 2012 by Chalk

NFL Week 5: Bills @ 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers have been the favorites to win the NFC for a few weeks now, and the 3-1 Niners are double-digits home favorites this Sunday as they host the 2-2 Buffalo Bills. The visitors have shown flashes since last season, but have been wildly inconsistent. The 49ers have been winning over 75% of their games since Jim Harbaugh took over as coach last season, but are they really that good?

SPREAD: 49ers -10
MONEY LINE: Bills +350, 49ers -450
OVER/UNDER: 44.5

Last Sunday, the Niners bounced back from a shocking road loss in Minnesota the week before, crushing the Jets 34-0 as 3.5-point road favorites.  The Niners are 3-1 overall and 3-1 against the spread, and they won and covered in their only home game by beating the Lions 27-19 as 6.5-point home favorites.  Still, the big win in New Jersey was San Francisco’s first double-digit victory of the season.

The Bills led in the fourth quarter against the Patriots, but then collapsed and lost 52-28, failing to cover as 3.5-point home underdogs.  That dropped Buffalo to 2-2 overall and 2-2 ATS, including 1-1 for reals and 1-1 ATS on the road. The Bills lost by 20 at the Jets in Week 1, but won by 10 in Cleveland in Week 3.  Maybe the math for the spread is if the Jets beat the Bills by 20 and lost to the 49ers by 34, the Niners should win this one by 54?

These two clubs haven’t faced each other since November 2008. The Niners won that one in Buffalo 10-3 despite coming into the game as seven-point road underdogs.

Three of four Bills games this season have gone Over. The 49ers haven’t had a game go Over since Week 1, but they also pushed in Week 2.  The last two Niners games have totalled 37 or fewer points, while only one Bills game has totalled less than 52 points.

If I was a gambling man, I’d take the Bills to cover and the Under.

 
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