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Added December 1st, 2009 by David Glisan

College Football Free Play:  Oregon vs. Oregon State

It might not be Auburn/Alabama, but the annual ‘Civil War’ between Oregon and Oregon State is one of the more heated rivalries in college football.  This year’s edition will be played on Thursday night at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.  While these games are always a big deal, this one has Pac 10 championship implications and a potential Rose Bowl bid on the line.

If you’ve followed this rivalry over the years, you know full well that its always been very competitive.  Even when the Oregon State football program was down in the dumps they’d always make a strong effort in this game.  Now, the Beavers’ program isn’t too far behind the Ducks’ in terms of quality.  Oregon enters this game with an 8-2 mark, while Oregon State is 7-3.  The Ducks may get more press nationally, but that alone can’t justify the price on this game.

OREGON STATE VS. OREGON–THURSDAY NIGHT

Like most serious handicappers, I put together my own numbers on every game on the board and compare it to the opening line looking for overlay situations.  For this game, I had priced Oregon as a -3′ favorite and was shocked when the Ducks opened at -9′ or -10!  All of the typical dynamics of a rivalry series apply here, including the concepts that ‘home field’ advantage is minimized and the underdog is almost always a good play.

Statistically, these two teams couldn’t be more evenly matched.  Oregon State averages 422 yards per game on offense, while Oregon averages 418 yards per game.  On defense, the Ducks allow 324 yards per game while the Beavers give up 340.  Oregon State is more pass oriented, while Oregon favors the run and its worth noting that the Ducks allow a stingy 98.5 yards per game on the ground.

The ATS numbers also reflect just how hard fought this series has been over the years.  Oregon has won 10 of the last 17 outright, but Oregon State has covered 10 of the last 17.  Both teams have performed well against the pointspread this year with identical 6-2 ATS records in the Pac 10.

In our handicap of the SEC Championship game, we talked about the concept of revenge and when it does and doesn’t apply.  This is a spot where it most certainly does.  Obviously this game is a big deal every year, but the Ducks humiliated Oregon State 65-38 on their home field last year.  That sets up a spot where the Beavers will be looking to return the favor and keep Oregon out of the Rose Bowl.  This matchup is much more even than the line indicates, making it a great value at the price.  We like Oregon State to win outright.

PLAY OREGON STATE +10 OVER OREGON

 
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One Response to “College Football Free Play: Oregon vs. Oregon State”

  1. I was curious if anyone has tried this Sports Handicapping Service? I encountered his video on Youtube and it turns out the service is sold through clickbank which means it comes with a 60 day money back guarantee. Was inquiring what peoples thoughts were.

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