Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942
A couple of weeks ago we talked about some basic concepts for handicapping the early bowl games. Now, we’ll turn our attention to handicapping the late college football bowl games. Sports betting experts approach these games differently, and so should you.
There is some debate as to what constitutes a ‘late’ bowl game for the application of these college football betting concepts. Some say its any post Christmas bowl game, but I’m of the opinion that anything that takes place on New Years’ Day or later is for our purposes a ‘late’ bowl game. These are typically the most prestigious games with the biggest implications for the national title picture. There are a few exceptions this year, for example the GMAC Bowl on January 6th which pits Troy vs. Central Michigan and is an ‘early’ bowl game in every regard except its schedule date.
The primary difference is that while we begin our handicapping for the ‘early’ bowls looking at the underdog we do just the opposite for the ‘late’ bowl games. In most cases, we start our handicapping for these games by looking at the pointspread favorite. There are several reasons for this, including the opposite phenomenon that we frequently see in the ‘early’ bowl games. In ‘early’ bowl games, its often the case that the team that is better ‘on paper’ may not be as motivated, excited or focused at the prospect of playing in a low profile bowl as is their less accomplished opponent.
That’s simply not the case in the ‘late’ bowl games. In most cases, both teams are motivated which makes the pointspread more of a true indication of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the participants. A primary reason for this is that the issue of scheduling is not in play. During the regular season, we often find value on underdogs by looking at the schedule. Favorites may be ‘looking ahead’ to a more significant game, or in a ‘letdown situation’ for one they’ve just played. They could be fatigued from playing a number of weeks without a break. Or else they may simply not be as ‘up’ for a given matchup as their opponent.
For the late bowl games, none of these issues apply. Both teams have been off for several weeks, making fatigue and preparation less of an issue. And obviously there’s no ‘letdown’ or ‘lookahead’ situations. With these issues not a factor, it becomes more of a battle of talent and matchups and in most cases by definition this is to the advantage of the favorite.
Of course there are exceptions to all rules: not saying that its the case here, but a team like Florida that played in the National Championship game last year could be less enthused about the prospect of playing in the Sugar Bowl. A team that was in the national championship hunt all season before losing late in the year could also be in something of a ‘letdown’ situation for their bowl game. You need to look at every matchup individually, but on balance favorites historically perform better in the later bowl games than in the earlier games.
TweetOne Response to “College football betting: handicapping the ‘late’ bowl games”
Leave a Reply


- Best Live Score Sites – NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, CFL, Golf, Tennis and Soccer
- How Not To Rob A Sportsbook
- NASCAR Betting Free Picks: Daytona 500
- Winter Olympics Betting: Total Medal Count
- Handicapping the ‘new’ Arena Football League
- Tips On Betting The Superbowl: Part 2 of 2
- Tips On Betting The Superbowl: Part 1 of 2
- NFL football betting: Handicapping the wild card round
- College football betting: handicapping the ‘late’ bowl games
- Handicapping final week NFL betting
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942

- September 13th, 2016
Tiger Woods returning to competitive golf - September 12th, 2016
Formula 1 sold for $4.4 billion - August 29th, 2016
Russian hockey player Damir Ryspayev handed lifetime ban - August 29th, 2016
Russia booted out of 2016 Paralympics - August 15th, 2016
Swimmer Michael Phelps could be greatest Olympian of all time - August 9th, 2016
Golfer Jim Furyk makes PGA history with score of 58 - August 1st, 2016
American golfer Jimmy Walker takes the PGA Championship - July 25th, 2016
Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady finally accepts four-game suspension - July 19th, 2016
Henrik Stenson wins 2016 British Open in record fashion - July 19th, 2016
2016 ESPY Award Winners announced
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942
I was curious if anyone knew anything about these professional sports ? I am thinking about signing up for this sports handicapping service. It looks pretty promising and its supported by a clickback guarantee which means your going to get your money back if you don’t like the system or it simply doesn’t work. Has anyone tried a service like this?