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Added April 30th, 2010 by David Glisan

Boxing Betting Free Picks For Saturday:  Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs. Shane Mosley

Saturday is going to be a great day for sports betting enthusiasts with a full card of hoops, hockey and baseball along with the Kentucky Derby. Capping off the action will be what promises to be a very entertaining fight between Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and ‘Sugar’ Shane Mosley. In addition to being a couple of my favorite fighters, these guys are two of the best.

This fight became Mayweather’s ‘plan b’ after negotiations to fight Manny Pacquiao broke down.  At least that’s the ‘party line’, but I’m of the opinion that the delay in putting together the Pacquiao/Mayweather fight was by design with both sides thinking that the bout would be much more lucrative with more buildup and another fight for each man.  Should Mayweather beat Mosley, you can start making plans for a trip to Las Vegas this fall to watch him take on Pacquiao.

FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR. VS. ‘SUGAR’ SHANE MOSLEY:

A mistake many people make when handicapping a fight involving Floyd Mayweather is letting their disdain for his cocky public persona obscure the fact that he’s an incredible fighter.  We’re talking talent of historic proportions.  Once he retires, he may finally get his due as arguably the best defensive boxer in the history of the sport.  He’s faced a number of ‘heavy hitters’, and they simply haven’t been able to hit him.

Mosley may be the most complete fighter Mayweather has ever faced.  Mosley will also be remembered as an all time great, and he’s as tough as they come.  Having said that, this isn’t a very good tactical matchup for him.  Mosley is at his best when facing sluggers and ‘boxer/punchers’–he gave Oscar De La Hoya fits, and has dominated other top competitors that fit that mold including Antonio Margarito and Fernando Vargas.  The fighters that have given him trouble are ‘slick’ fighters who aren’t looking to stand and bang.  He lost twice to Vernon Forrest and twice to Winky Wright.  Wright frustrated Mosley with his superior jab and solid defense just as he frustrated many competitors.

The problem for Mosley is that as good of a defensive fighter as Wright was in his prime, he’s not even in the same league as Mayweather.  It’s also important to keep in mind that Mosley is now 38 years old.  He’s as tough, dedicated and skilled as ever, but as fighters age they inevitably start to slow down.  Even in his prime, he couldn’t have matched Mayweather’s speed and he’ll be less able to do so now.

So how do you bet the fight?  I’ve spoken to a number of very knowledgable boxing experts and they all share the take I have on the fight.  Mayweather is too fast and too good for Mosley to beat.  Having said that, Mosley is too tough for Mayweather to stop inside the distance.  The price on Mayweather is too high at -430 (lines here are from Bookmaker), yet there’s no real incentive to take the price on Mosley.  The fight will most likely go the distance, meaning the ‘Under’ round prop isn’t a viable play, yet the ‘Over’ is also priced too high at -315.

The only way I see that you can get involved financially is to play the ‘Mayweather by decision’ prop bet available at many books including Pinnacle and BoDog.  It’s a reasonable -180, and against a fighter that has never been knocked out that’s the way Mayweather will win this.

Don’t get sucked in to the trap that the general public often falls for in Mayweather fights.  I did some checking around on Twitter and elsewhere trying to get a feel for the ‘public mood’ on this fight and heard something that I’ve heard countless times in Mayweather’s career:  “Fighter X (in this case Mosley) will catch Mayweather and beat him up.”  One problem–its never happened.  The last time I fell for this logic was early in Mayweather’s career, when I bet against him in his fight with the late, great Diego Corrales.  Corrales at the time was a beast, who threw power punches in bunches.  All I could do after the bell rang was watch in awe as Mayweather put on one of the most insane exhibitions of boxing skill I’ve ever witnessed.  Mayweather didn’t just beat Corrales, he dominated him–at the time the fight was stopped the scorecards read 89-79, 90-79, and 90-78.  Most impressively, Mayweather limited an exceptionally prolific puncher to an unprecedented Compbox record for futility as Corrales had a single digit punch connect number in every round.

In other words, you may not like Mayweather but you’ve got to respect his skill.  Mayweather by a lopsided unanimous decision.

BET FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JR. BY DECISION OVER SHANE MOSLEY -180

 
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