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UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo defends his title this Saturday at UFC Rio, fighting in his homeland of Brazil for the first time in years. Aldo will take on Team Alpha Male’s Chad Mendes, a teammate of Urijah Faber, who Aldo beat back in 2010.

Aldo has not lost a fight since 2005 and holds a professional record of 19-1. This will be his fifth defense of his WEC/UFC title. He’ll face the talented but raw Mendes, who has yet to lose in 11 pro fights.

Mendes has the nickname “Money”, but he’s +190 to win in this fight, with the champion Aldo at -240. At first glance I was surprised to see the line as it is, figuring it to be much higher for an Aldo victory.

Mendes excels at takedowns and wrestling, but Aldo is arguably the fastest fighter in MMA, both with his movement and his strikes. Mendes is a decision-machine, and he just can’t last that long against Aldo. I like Aldo to find his distance by round 3, so look for a knockout by then if not sooner. Take Aldo -240.

Here is the Aldo vs. Mendes preview video from the UFC Countdown show.