UFC Free Picks

The UFC heads back to Las Vegas for UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit, airing this Saturday night on Pay-per-view. The winner of the main event becomes the UFC interim welterweight champion, while Georges St. Pierre heals from a torn ACL.

This card also features Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum. I’ve seen Nelson anywhere from -110 to +110 and I think either one of them is a steal. Werdum has said he will either knockout Nelson or get KO’d by him. He’s not knocking out Roy Nelson.

Even if Werdum doesn’t opt for that gameplan, I don’t expect a different outcome. Nelson is a high-level ground fighter and it’s doubtful Werdum can submit him. With Nelson being light years ahead of Werdum in striking, the easy choice here is Nelson.

Here’s the extended video preview of UFC 143, and we’ll have more free picks later this week.

UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo defends his title this Saturday at UFC Rio, fighting in his homeland of Brazil for the first time in years. Aldo will take on Team Alpha Male’s Chad Mendes, a teammate of Urijah Faber, who Aldo beat back in 2010.

Aldo has not lost a fight since 2005 and holds a professional record of 19-1. This will be his fifth defense of his WEC/UFC title. He’ll face the talented but raw Mendes, who has yet to lose in 11 pro fights.

Mendes has the nickname “Money”, but he’s +190 to win in this fight, with the champion Aldo at -240. At first glance I was surprised to see the line as it is, figuring it to be much higher for an Aldo victory.

Mendes excels at takedowns and wrestling, but Aldo is arguably the fastest fighter in MMA, both with his movement and his strikes. Mendes is a decision-machine, and he just can’t last that long against Aldo. I like Aldo to find his distance by round 3, so look for a knockout by then if not sooner. Take Aldo -240.

Here is the Aldo vs. Mendes preview video from the UFC Countdown show.

UFC 139 in San Jose features a tremendous card with plenty of opportunities to make some money. Here are our UFC 139 free picks.

Stephan Bonnar +120 vs. Kyle Kingsbury -150

Bonnar has had a rebirth since losing to Jon Jones and Mark Coleman by decision. He was in a war with Krzysztof Soszynski that ended in a loss due to a cut. But he came back in the rematch and KO’d Soszynski in the 2nd round, and looked impressive in a unanimous decision win. Kingsbury has looked good in rattling off wins since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. But Bonnar is a step up in competition, and he’ll take the win here. Take Bonnar +120.

Rick Story -145 vs. Martin Kampmann +115

Story’s star was on the rise after defeating Thiago Alves in May, but he came back a month later and lost to Charlie Brenneman. Kampmann is coming off two losses, one to Diego Sanchez and one to Jake Shields. And a matchup with Story will not be the fight to get him back in the win column. Kampmann has trouble with wrestlers and Story will smother him. It might not be pretty but, Story will get it done. Take Story -145.

Urijah Faber -250 vs. Brian Bowles +195

The darling of the UFC, so to speak, is Urijah Faber. This bugs some observers, but no one gets love and publicity for losing fights. Faber is a winner and former champion. Brian Bowles is also a former champion and known for his heavy hands, but he is excellent at submissions too. But to me this fight will be decided by Faber’s wrestling and scramble ability. His quickness and creativity allow him to win most scrambles, and his wrestling could potentially nullify –or at least temper — Bowles’ power right hand. Take Faber -250.

Cung Le -145 vs. Wanderlei Silva +115

Is it silly to bet money on a 35-year old fighter that is just 2-4 in the UFC and has lost 6 of his last 8 fights dating back to 2006? That is what you’d be doing if you put money on Wanderlei Silva. But here’s the catch: his opponent is Cung Le. While Le is an excellent fighter, he is a part-time fighter at best, has never fought in the UFC, has never fought anyone like Silva and hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Silva will come out fast and furious and knock Le out. Take Silva +115.

Dan Henderson +110 vs. Shogun Rua -140

I believe it to be as simple as this: do you think Henderson will be able that patented, thunderous overhand right on Rua’s chin? Then you bet on Hendo. If you think Rua can kickbox Hendo and keep him at distance, then Rua may score a KO and he’s your man. As for me, I’m not ready to bet against Henderson’s right-hand, and I don’t trust Rua in big fights. Take Henderson +110.

The UFC on Fox debuts on Saturday night, and since all the fights except the main event are considered prelim fights, we will give you our top 5 fight picks. Here we go…

Ricardo Lamas -140 vs. Cub Swanson +110

Swanson had some success in the WEC, but lost to some of the bigger names like Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes. Lamas is fun to watch, a collegiate wrestler with power in his hands. He also fought in the WEC and made a splash in his UFC debut by knocking out Matt Grice in the first round. This is a bad matchup for Swanson, and he won’t be able to defend Lamas’ takedowns. Take Lamas -140.

DaMarques Johnson -280 vs. Clay Harvison +220

A battle of two former Ultimate Fighter contestants. Harvison has knockout power, but Johnson is the better all-around fighter. He also has more experience. Still, Johnson has been knocked out in two of his last three fights. I think the line here reflects bettor tendencies than the actual matchup. Don’t go bonkers, but take Harvison +220.

Kid Yamamoto -370 vs. Darren Uyenoyama +280

What a pleasure it would have been to have seen Kid Yamamoto fighting in the states during his prime. The Shooto and K-1 legend makes his second appearance in the Octagon against newcomer Uyenoyama. Kid ran into the buzzsaw that is Demtrious Johnson in his UFC debut, but should blow through the untested Uyenoyama. Take Yamamoto -370.

Clay Guida +195 vs. Benson Henderson -280

The masses are going with Henderson, and it’s hard to fault them after his impressive performance against Jim Miller. Henderson has also handled Donald Cerrone twice, and he will be the bigger, stronger fighter in the cage. But Henderson will not be able to keep or maybe even put Guida on his back like he did Miller. And since Guida has moved to Jackson’s MMA, his striking has greatly improved. He will push the pace and this fight will likely go to the judges’ scorecards. If that happens, I like Guida in the so-called “upset”. Take Guida +195.

Cain Velasquez -195 vs. Junior dos Santos +155

The main event of the card and the only televised bout on the Fox broadcast. Everyone knows that either fighter could knock the other one out in a blink of an eye. These two combatants have the most extreme combination of speed and power in the heavyweight division. But let’s face it — Velasquez is a world-class wrestler and will use that to his advantage sooner rather than later. If you believe in dos Santos, by all means throw money behind him. He could score the KO. But if you are looking at skillsets, the smart money is on the champ. Take Velasquez -195.