UFC Free Picks

Here are our free picks for tonight’s UFC 118 event…

BJ Penn (-350) vs. Frankie Edgar (+250)

Alec Baldwin famously said “Your excuses are your own!” in “GlenGarry Glen Ross”. BJ Penn had a few of them after his loss to current lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, and leading up to this fight. Maybe Penn was sick, the fight wasn’t judged correctly and Penn just had a bad night. That was then and it doesn’t matter anymore. Judges won’t be needed in this one. Penn by KO. Take Penn -350.

Randy Couture (-600) vs. James Toney (+400)

If James Toney were fighting someone less cerebral than Randy Couture, he might have a better chance. But Couture is smarter than most inside the Octagon and won’t be goaded into a slugfest. Couture will be careful, work his gameplan and eventually submit Toney or pound him out from top position until the ref steps in to save Toney. Take Couture -600.

Damian Maia (-230) vs. Mario Miranda (+180)

Mario Miranda sounds like he should be a crooner from the 1950′s wooing women and throwing back scotch with The Rat Pack. Alas, he is a mixed martial artist with a 10-1 record, making his 3rd appearance in the Octagon. He is 1-1 in the UFC and got this fight with Maia due to a string of injuries. Maia is sort of in an identity crisis after Silva loss and deciding he wants to show the world he can strike. This is the fight where he gets back to what got him to the UFC — he’ll get Miranda in his guard and submit him. Take Maia -230.

Kenny Florian (-160) vs. Gray Maynard (+130)

Kenny Florian keeps getting better and adding tools to his skill set. Maynard is undefeated and a wrestling stud that seemingly can’t finish anyone. I read one preview of the fight that said Florian can’t generate offense from his back and guard. Florian’s elbows tell a different story. My guess is Florian has never been more confident. He will strike Maynard early and often and wear him down. It might go to a decision, but I doubt it. Take Florian -160.

Nate Diaz (-220) vs. Marcus Davis (+175)

Hard to believe that this will be Davis’ 13th fight in the Octagon. He just turned 37 and a fight with Nate Diaz is not a great present for him. This is a horrible matchup for him in terms of style. Diaz jump up to welterweight so far looks to be a smart move. The brash Diaz could probably ask Davis “How you want it?” after the bell sounds to start the match. I think he holds the edge in all phases except power-punching. I see Davis getting subbed after a pummeling from Diaz. Take Diaz -220.

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UFC on Versus 2 is Sunday night, and it offers fans another chance to see the electric Jon “Bones” Jones in the Octagon. Here are our free picks.

Tyson Griffin (14-3) -325 vs. Takanori Gomi (31-6) +250

Gomi was rudely welcomed into the UFC by Kenny Florian, getting beat up and finally choked out in the 3rd round. He’s on a 3-fight losing streak. He was supposed to fight Joe Stevenson but will instead face Tyson Griffin after Stevenson suffered a knee injury in training. The result would be the same for Gomi either way. Griffin should suffocate Gomi and do what he does best — work out a decision victory.
Pick: Griffin -325

Jake Ellenberger (22-5) -175 vs. John Howard (14-4) +145

This bout features 2 young fighters that already have a lot of experience and still untapped potential. People think that Howard will be over-matched by Ellenberger’s wrestling. But Howard is undefeated in the UFC and is the more explosive fighter. Conventional wisdom says that Ellenberger should be able to subdue Howard and grind out a victory. But at +145 I think Howard is a decent bet. Proceed with caution, but I see Howard with a KO victory.
Pick: Howard +145

Yushin Okami (24-5) -200 vs. Mark Munoz (8-1) +160

I don’t get — and never have — all the Yushin Okami love. Chael Sonnen showed how to beat Okami at UFC 104 and Munoz can duplicate that. Munoz has been training with Anderson Silva. Munoz said, “I’m going to take him down and pound him out.” Silva agrees. So do I. Make some nice money with Munoz.
Pick: Munoz +160

Jon Jones (10-1) -800 vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (24-4) +500

The grooming process of phenom Jon Jones continues with a shot at “The Janitor” Vladimir Matyushenko. The problem with this is that The Janitor does not offer an upgrade in competition over Jones’ last 4 opponents. Brandon Vera, Matt Hamill, Jake O’ Brien and Stephan Bonnar were all better challenges for Jones. This is just wheel-spinning, as the -800 number suggests.
Pick: Jones -800

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Here are our UFC 115 free picks.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin

Everything about the matchup with Tito was great for Chuck to try and get back to his winning ways. Everything about the matchup with Rich Franklin screams bad news. This is stylistically a nightmare for Chuck. Franklin likes to get in and get out and works with a lot of movement. He’ll also keep Chuck at bay with leg and punishing body kicks. Franklin wears the Iceman down then KOs him in the 3rd. Take Rich Franklin.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Pat Barry

Cro Cop looked very good in his destruction of Anthony Perosh at UFC 110. But Perosh was a last-minute addition and nothing much more than a journeyman fighter. Pat Barry has tremendous power and a huge chin. It might take more than one round, but Barry will knockout Cro Cop and end his UFC career. Take Pat Barry.

Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald

Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit apparently hasn’t been able to find his murder weapons since making the leap to the UFC from the WEC. He had to withdraw from UFC 108, lost to Martin Kampmann at UFC Fight Night 18 and pulled out a decision win against Jake Ellenberger at UFC Fight Night 19. Rory MacDonald is 10-0 and a jiu-jitsu specialist. This fight will indeed get to the ground and when it does look for MacDonald to submit Condit. Take Rory MacDonald.

Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann

All signs point to Thiago winning this fight and getting the next title shot against the winner of Josh Koscheck and GSP. Thiago has already beaten Koscheck once. And though Thiago desperately wants a title shot, he needs to be very careful of the explosive Kampmann. But the truth is that this bout will finish carving out Kampmann’s niche in the UFC — and entertaining mid-card fighter. Thiago will submit Kampmann. Take Paulo Thiago.

Ben Rothwell vs. Gilbert Yvel

Ben Rothwell was absolutely destroyed by Cain Velasquez at UFC 104. But he proved that he still has a tremendous chin and will. Yvel has none of the speed or conditioning of Velasquez, and I’m still unsure why he is even in the UFC. The loser will surely leave the UFC after this fight. That will be Yvel, who eventually will gas or get frustrated and end up getting KO’d by Big Ben. Take Ben Rothwell.

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That’s not the *official* name of the event, of course, but the important thing is that the UFC is holding Saturday’s UFC 112 event in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.  The picture isn’t the set of the next Star Trek movie, but a huge development called Yas Island which is where the UFC card will be held.  Taking a page out of Las Vegas boxing in the 70′s and 80′s, they’re erecting a temporary arena which will be torn down the day after UFC 112 and used for a Tom Jones concert elsewhere on the island.

On one level, the trip to Abu Dhabi makes sense.  Since the UFC appears determined to never again put on a card that actual MMA fans are excited about seeing, they have to continually look for new markets where their mere presence will be considered an event.  Abu Dhabi has a long relationship with fight sports, primarily due to the Abu Dhabi Combat Championships submission grappling tournaments.  It’ll be a great live gate for the UFC, but that notwithstanding there’s a lot of strangeness about the choice of venue.

First of all, to facilitate it the UFC’s parent company Zuffa LLC sold 10% of their business to a company called Flash Entertainment which is owned by the Abu Dhabi government.  This transaction has been a head scratcher since it was announced.  Either Flash offered a premium over fair market value, the Zuffa ownership of Dana White and the Fertittas are looking to slowly cash out, or some combination thereof.   UFC fanboys haven’t blinked an eye at this odd transaction, but let’s think about this–Dana White likes to claim that MMA will one day be bigger than soccer internationally and the UFC will be the dominant brand.  So why, then, are the UFC’s principles letting someone else get their hand in the cookie jar and particularly if its like selling 10% of the English Premier League?

Of course with fight cards like the UFC has had recently they’ll have a hard time maintaining the popularity of *indoor* soccer in the US, let alone outdoor soccer internationally.  This card is especially dismal, despite two championship fights.  Anderson Silva and BJ Penn will defend their titles against game but overmatched opposition.  In the latest UFC betting ‘old timers’ matchup Renzo Gracie will face Matt Hughes.  I’m not kidding.

The weak card doesn’t really matter, however, as the venue will effectively kill any chances for UFC 112 to have any PPV success.  The main card begins at 1 PM Eastern/11 AM Pacific, meaning the Saturday night broadcast will be tape delayed.

With so many oddities about UFC 112 there’s not much in the way of betting opportunities.  We’ll run down the top three fights anyway:

UFC 112:

MAIN EVENT–ANDERSON SILVA VS. DEMIAN MAIA

Anderson Silva defends his middleweight title against Demian Maia, and we all know that Silva won’t have any part of a BJJ exchange based on his last miserable title defense against Thales Leites.  Maia at least has a theoretical chance, as his jiu jitsu is top notch.  The problem is that he can’t take a punch and his striking skills are rudimentary at best.  If Maia can take Silva down and make it a ground fight without getting knocked out he’s got a shot.  More likely, Silva knocks him out and will await the next opponent who the UFC can find to stand in front of him and get punched.  At a higher price, a speculative play on Maia might be interesting but I’d need a lot more than the +550 or so that he’s getting here.

PASS

BJ PENN VS. FRANKIE EDGAR:

The main event should be Ali/Frazier 1 compared to this mismatch.  Frankie Edgar is a good kid and a decent fighter, with competent standup and a solid ground game.  The only problem is he’s facing the most dominant champion in the UFC, and the things that he’s good at BJ Penn is great at.  Edgar is tough as nails, so he could be hard for Penn to put away but its hard to come up with a scenario in which he can win.  Penn wins by third round stoppage.

PASS

RENZO GRACIE VS. MATT HUGHES:

Renzo Gracie is a legitimate legend in the sport, but this is oddly enough his UFC debut.  This would have been a great fight in 2005, but now its just another example of what’s wrong the UFC–its a meaningless fight between two past their prime competitors.  Gracie hasn’t fought in over three years and only three times since July 2005.  He’s won his last three fights, but lost six of his previous 7 to an insane level of competition at the top of their game.  Try this list on for size–the losses were to Dan Henderson, BJ Penn, Kiyoshi Tamura, Carlos Newton, Kazushi Sakuraba and Shungo Oyama.  But since we’re going back to circa 2000 here you can see that Gracie has fought very sparingly in the past five years.  Hughes has lost 3 of his last 5 fights, but he’ll probably win this one.  He’s not got the ‘ring rust’ that Gracie will, and he’s got a more well rounded game.   That’s why he’s a -440 favorite and why there’s not a good wagering position on the fight.  I get why Renzo Gracie is on this card–he’s a big star in Abu Dhabi and considers it ‘his second home’.  He deserves his legend status but that still doesn’t mean he should still be fighting.

PASS

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