UFC Free Picks

The UFC heads back to Las Vegas for UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit, airing this Saturday night on Pay-per-view. The winner of the main event becomes the UFC interim welterweight champion, while Georges St. Pierre heals from a torn ACL.

This card also features Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum. I’ve seen Nelson anywhere from -110 to +110 and I think either one of them is a steal. Werdum has said he will either knockout Nelson or get KO’d by him. He’s not knocking out Roy Nelson.

Even if Werdum doesn’t opt for that gameplan, I don’t expect a different outcome. Nelson is a high-level ground fighter and it’s doubtful Werdum can submit him. With Nelson being light years ahead of Werdum in striking, the easy choice here is Nelson.

Here’s the extended video preview of UFC 143, and we’ll have more free picks later this week.

UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo defends his title this Saturday at UFC Rio, fighting in his homeland of Brazil for the first time in years. Aldo will take on Team Alpha Male’s Chad Mendes, a teammate of Urijah Faber, who Aldo beat back in 2010.

Aldo has not lost a fight since 2005 and holds a professional record of 19-1. This will be his fifth defense of his WEC/UFC title. He’ll face the talented but raw Mendes, who has yet to lose in 11 pro fights.

Mendes has the nickname “Money”, but he’s +190 to win in this fight, with the champion Aldo at -240. At first glance I was surprised to see the line as it is, figuring it to be much higher for an Aldo victory.

UFC 139 in San Jose features a tremendous card with plenty of opportunities to make some money. Here are our UFC 139 free picks.

Stephan Bonnar +120 vs. Kyle Kingsbury -150

Bonnar has had a rebirth since losing to Jon Jones and Mark Coleman by decision. He was in a war with Krzysztof Soszynski that ended in a loss due to a cut. But he came back in the rematch and KO’d Soszynski in the 2nd round, and looked impressive in a unanimous decision win. Kingsbury has looked good in rattling off wins since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. But Bonnar is a step up in competition, and he’ll take the win here. Take Bonnar +120.

Rick Story -145 vs. Martin Kampmann +115

The UFC on Fox debuts on Saturday night, and since all the fights except the main event are considered prelim fights, we will give you our top 5 fight picks. Here we go…

Ricardo Lamas -140 vs. Cub Swanson +110

Swanson had some success in the WEC, but lost to some of the bigger names like Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes. Lamas is fun to watch, a collegiate wrestler with power in his hands. He also fought in the WEC and made a splash in his UFC debut by knocking out Matt Grice in the first round. This is a bad matchup for Swanson, and he won’t be able to defend Lamas’ takedowns. Take Lamas -140.

DaMarques Johnson -280 vs. Clay Harvison +220