UFC Free Picks

The UFC makes their first trip to Australia for UFC 110 which will bring us at least one very compelling matchup between heavyweights Cain Velasquez and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira amid the over the hill war horses and mismatches that have predominated on UFC PPVs of late.  I honestly don’t have any new revelations on the main event since I wrote this preview a few days ago.  Velasquez is now a -120 or thereabouts favorite at most sportsbooks, but my handicap on the fight hasn’t changed.  It literally could go either way.  His staph infection addled loss to Frank Mir notwithstanding, Big Nog has never been stopped inside the distance despite facing an ungodly level of competition with names like Fedor, Cro Cop (in his prime) and Josh Barnett that are certainly capable of knocking people out.  That makes a Velasquez stoppage very unlikely.  My initial thinking is that Velasquez would control Nogueira on the ground en route to a decision, but a few of my MMA cronies have suggested that I’m nuts thinking he can do that without getting submitted by his vastly more experienced opponent.

The UFC gets it on with its second event of the year — and second in 10 days — with UFC Fight Night 20 in Fairfax, Virginia. Here are our free UFC picks.

Brad Blackburn (+135) vs. Amir Sadollah (-145)

Sadollah may be “The Ultimate Fighter”, but Brad “Bad” Blackburn has a ton of experience and has fought some big names. Blackburn comes into this fight riding a 4-fight win streak, including his first 3 bouts in the UFC. Sadollah needed a decision to beat the irrelevant Phil Baroni at UFC 106, and got knocked out by Johny Hendricks at UFC 101. So don’t be surprised when Blackburn KOs Sadollah. Take Blackburn +135

Tom Lawlor (+260) vs. Aaron Simpson (-240)

UFC breaks in the new year with the first big MMA event of 2010. UFC 108 features the return of Rashad Evans, 2 fights with the Lauzon brothers and one of MMA’s most controversial fighters in Gilbert Yvel. Here are our free picks for UFC 108.

Junior Dos Santos -300 vs. Gilbert Yvel +275

Dos Santos is one of MMA’s up and coming stars. He’s 3-0 in the UFC with very impressive wins over Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve and Cro Cop. Yvel is the bad boy of MMA and I’m not even sure why he’s in the UFC. We shouldn’t waste time on breaking this down because Dos Santos won’t need much time to get the win. Take Dos Santos -300

Jim Miller -425 vs. Duane Ludwig +400

The UFC heads to Memphis for the first time and it’s bringing them a jam-packed card. Let’s take a look at our UFC 107 free picks.

Paul Buentello +105 vs. Stefan Struve -110

This is Buentello’s first fight back in the UFC, and if he truly believes he can eventually get a title shot he must beat Stefan Struve, an impressive young fighter that stands almost 7 feet tall. Struve has exceptional jiu-jitsu and his toughness cannot be questioned. At UFC 99 Struve received a massive cut from Denis Stojnic but fought through it submitted him in the 2nd round. Still, while Buentello may not be the best defensive fighter, he’s experienced enough to get inside on Struve and throw those big bombs. Take Buentello +105

Jon Fitch -325 vs. Mike Pierce +325