The UFC heads back to Las Vegas for UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit, airing this Saturday night on Pay-per-view. The winner of the main event becomes the UFC interim welterweight champion, while Georges St. Pierre heals from a torn ACL.

This card also features Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum. I’ve seen Nelson anywhere from -110 to +110 and I think either one of them is a steal. Werdum has said he will either knockout Nelson or get KO’d by him. He’s not knocking out Roy Nelson.

Even if Werdum doesn’t opt for that gameplan, I don’t expect a different outcome. Nelson is a high-level ground fighter and it’s doubtful Werdum can submit him. With Nelson being light years ahead of Werdum in striking, the easy choice here is Nelson.

Here’s the extended video preview of UFC 143, and we’ll have more free picks later this week.

UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo defends his title this Saturday at UFC Rio, fighting in his homeland of Brazil for the first time in years. Aldo will take on Team Alpha Male’s Chad Mendes, a teammate of Urijah Faber, who Aldo beat back in 2010.

Aldo has not lost a fight since 2005 and holds a professional record of 19-1. This will be his fifth defense of his WEC/UFC title. He’ll face the talented but raw Mendes, who has yet to lose in 11 pro fights.

Mendes has the nickname “Money”, but he’s +190 to win in this fight, with the champion Aldo at -240. At first glance I was surprised to see the line as it is, figuring it to be much higher for an Aldo victory.

Mendes excels at takedowns and wrestling, but Aldo is arguably the fastest fighter in MMA, both with his movement and his strikes. Mendes is a decision-machine, and he just can’t last that long against Aldo. I like Aldo to find his distance by round 3, so look for a knockout by then if not sooner. Take Aldo -240.

Here is the Aldo vs. Mendes preview video from the UFC Countdown show.

Strikeforce returns on Saturday night with its first event of 2012. Luke Rockhold will make the first defense of his middleweight title against former UFC brawler Keith Jardine.

Rockhold put on an impressive performance in his title fight with Jacare, winning via unanimous decision after a five-round battle. He is 8-1 with 6 submission wins, and hasn’t lost since his 2nd pro fight back in 2007.

Jardine has resurrected his career after a horrid five-fight losing streak. He recently battled to a draw with Gegard Mousasi in his Strieforce debut. Before that he strung together two consecutive wins in smaller promotions.

It’s not the best fight to bet on. Rockhold is -600 to win, Jardine is +400. Rockhold is fast and accurate in his striking, and he has a tremendous ground game. Jardine certainly has experience but it’s unlikely to be a factor in this fight. If you do place a wager, Rockhold should be your pick. Here is the promo for the event.

UFC 139 in San Jose features a tremendous card with plenty of opportunities to make some money. Here are our UFC 139 free picks.

Stephan Bonnar +120 vs. Kyle Kingsbury -150

Bonnar has had a rebirth since losing to Jon Jones and Mark Coleman by decision. He was in a war with Krzysztof Soszynski that ended in a loss due to a cut. But he came back in the rematch and KO’d Soszynski in the 2nd round, and looked impressive in a unanimous decision win. Kingsbury has looked good in rattling off wins since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. But Bonnar is a step up in competition, and he’ll take the win here. Take Bonnar +120.

Rick Story -145 vs. Martin Kampmann +115

Story’s star was on the rise after defeating Thiago Alves in May, but he came back a month later and lost to Charlie Brenneman. Kampmann is coming off two losses, one to Diego Sanchez and one to Jake Shields. And a matchup with Story will not be the fight to get him back in the win column. Kampmann has trouble with wrestlers and Story will smother him. It might not be pretty but, Story will get it done. Take Story -145.

Urijah Faber -250 vs. Brian Bowles +195

The darling of the UFC, so to speak, is Urijah Faber. This bugs some observers, but no one gets love and publicity for losing fights. Faber is a winner and former champion. Brian Bowles is also a former champion and known for his heavy hands, but he is excellent at submissions too. But to me this fight will be decided by Faber’s wrestling and scramble ability. His quickness and creativity allow him to win most scrambles, and his wrestling could potentially nullify –or at least temper — Bowles’ power right hand. Take Faber -250.

Cung Le -145 vs. Wanderlei Silva +115

Is it silly to bet money on a 35-year old fighter that is just 2-4 in the UFC and has lost 6 of his last 8 fights dating back to 2006? That is what you’d be doing if you put money on Wanderlei Silva. But here’s the catch: his opponent is Cung Le. While Le is an excellent fighter, he is a part-time fighter at best, has never fought in the UFC, has never fought anyone like Silva and hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Silva will come out fast and furious and knock Le out. Take Silva +115.

Dan Henderson +110 vs. Shogun Rua -140

I believe it to be as simple as this: do you think Henderson will be able that patented, thunderous overhand right on Rua’s chin? Then you bet on Hendo. If you think Rua can kickbox Hendo and keep him at distance, then Rua may score a KO and he’s your man. As for me, I’m not ready to bet against Henderson’s right-hand, and I don’t trust Rua in big fights. Take Henderson +110.