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UFC Fight Night: Shields vs. Ellenberger Free Picks – SportsUntapped.com
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Added September 16th, 2011 by Matt

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs. Ellenberger Free Picks
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Here are Sports Untapped’s free picks for UFC Fight Night: Shields vs. Ellenberger.

Alan Belcher -300 vs. Jason MacDonald +220

Belcher makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon after a scary eye injury almost ended his career. MacDonald has had mixed results in his UFC return, going 1-1 since coming back. Belcher — even with “cage rust” — is a huge step up from the guys he’s been fighting. Belcher is better-skilled in all areas, and he’ll get the win. Take Belcher -300

Erik Koch -215 vs. Jonathan Brookins +165

Brookins will finally make his first non-TUF fight in the UFC, another fighter coming off an injury. Brookins only loss is to Jose Aldo. He’ll get Eric Koch on Saturday, a very exciting fighter that transferred to the UFC from the WEC. Koch has KO power and can finish you on the grounds too. Brookins is crafty and elusive, but Koch will hunt you down. Safe play is to take Koch -215.

Court McGee -165 vs. Dongi Yang +135

McGee is the TUF champion who doesn’t look flashy but beats people up and breaks them down. Any fight lasting longer than one round is likely to favor McGee, and I find that to be the case here against the less-experienced Yang. It might take 15 minutes and might not be pretty, but look for McGee to win. Take McGee -165

Jake Shields -175 vs. Jake Ellenberger +145

Shields is the favorite and needs a win to stay relevant in the division after losing to GSP. This is a bad matchup for him. Sure, Shields is a ground wizard but good luck getting Ellenberger to the ground. Ellenberger’s stand up is much better than Shields’.

Ellenberger may look young, and is at just 26, but he has a lot of experience and has fought some big names. He has to be careful in scrambles lest he get wrapped up and submitted by Shields. But I think Ellenberger will use his speed and power to beat up Shields and knock him out. You can’t survive at the upper levels of MMA with just one solid skill set, and Shields will find that out on Saturday. Take Ellenberger +145

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