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UFC Betting Free Picks: UFC on Versus – SportsUntapped.com
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Added March 21st, 2010 by David Glisan

UFC Betting Free Picks:  UFC on Versus
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Dana White has a problem.  He keeps promising a ‘network TV deal’ but none of the networks want to do business with him.  A while back he nixed a deal to air the UFC on HBO because the pay cable network wanted too much production control.  Dana balked–never mind that HBO has the best fight production team in the business.  Since then he can’t get a sniff from a major TV network.  For that reason, the UFC has decided to air some live events on the Versus cable network better known as the home of their promotion devoted to the lighter weight classes, the WEC.

Tonight’s card starts at 9 PM Eastern/6 PM Pacific from Broomfield, Colorado and is headlined by a light heavyweight bout between Jon Jones and Brandon Vera.

UFC ON VERSUS:

MAIN EVENT–JON JONES VS. BRANDON VERA:

Good matchup between a competent vet in Brandon Vera and a fighter many have tabbed as the future of the light heavyweight division, Jon Jones.  Jones was DQ’d in his last fight after obliterating Matt Hamill for using an illegal elbow strike which is something of a trivia question answer as it was the first time that instant replay was used in the state of Nevada.  To his credit, he accepted the verdict with considerable class.  Vera’s last fight was a unanimous decision loss to ageless wonder Randy Couture where ‘The Natural’ basically bulled his opponent against the cage wall for three rounds.  On the few occasions that Vera got proper spacing to strike he did well, but unfortunately he didn’t do it enough.

The styles of the two fighters are at the crux of the handicap for this fight.  Nothing but respect for Vera as a fighter, but he’s got a tendency to let his opponent dictate the pace and style of the fight.  This has been evidenced against opponents with a variety of fighting styles–Couture, Tim Sylvia and Keith Jardine.  His only TKO loss was at heavyweight to Fabricio Werdum, who will reportedly be Fedor Emelianenko’s next Strikeforce opponent.  The problem here is that Jones is all about forcing tempo and is a very powerful, well rounded fighter with a solid wrestling base and good punching power.  Simply put, there are more ways for Jones to win this fight than Vera.

An important consideration–this fight is being held at 5,344 feet above sea level.  Jones has been training with Greg Jackson in Albuquerque, NM at 5,312 feet.  Vera has been training in Maryland and the Philippines and could have problems with the altitude.  His biggest problem will be Jones, who has looked absolutely dominant.  If you have access to a book that offers a variety of props on this fight, the best play is probably Jones inside the distance (+185).  Pinnacle has the O/U round prop on this fight at UN 2′ +120 and that’s another way to play it. The line below for outright winner is from Bookmaker.

PLAY JON JONES -240 OVER BRANDON VERA

GABRIEL GONZAGA VS. JUNIOR DOS SANTOS:

Gonzaga is a good fighter, but he’s struggled when stepping up in class against opponents such as Randy Couture, Shane Carwin and Fabricio Werdum.  He doesn’t do well against aggressive, powerful opponents and that’s exactly what Dos Santos is.  Dos Santos is undefeated since coming to the UFC and has won all of his fights in ‘the octagon’ by TKO–most recently against tough vet Gilbert Yvel.  Dos Santos can match Gonzaga for size and strength, and his aggressive fight style should get him the victory.  Again, a more attractive play is Dos Santos inside the distance (-175).

PLAY JUNIOR DOS SANTOS -285 OVER GABRIEL GONZAGA

PAUL BUENTELLO VS. CHEICK KONGO:

This may be the best underdog position on the card.  Kongo has lost two straight to Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez and now faces one of the better technical boxers in MMA.  Paul Buentello is off a loss in a tough tactical matchup against 6’11” Stefan Struve but before that had won 12 of his L14 fights with his only losses against Andrei Arlovski when he was at his peak and Alistair Overeem.  Kongo is a better matchup for ‘The Headhunter’ and this is a much closer fight than the line suggests.

PLAY PAUL BUENTELLO +310 OVER CHEICK KONGO

The only other fight with any wagering value is this undercard battle:

CHASE GORMLEY VS. BRENDAN SCHAUB:

Schaub is a former pro football player who spent time in the Arena League and on the Buffalo Bills practice squad.  He’s best known to MMA fans for his stint on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’.  He’s a big, powerful guy but against Gormley is facing someone with much more technical fighting experience.  Again, this fight should be closer than the price suggests.

PLAY CHASE GORMLEY +220 OVER BRENDAN SCHAUB

 
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