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Sports Untapped’s free picks for UFC 121 Lesnar vs. Velasquez.

Paulo Thiago -125 vs. Diego Sanchez -105

Thiago is making his 6th appearance in the Octagon, and is 3-2 in his UFC career. He’s also a terrible matchup for Diego Sanchez. He has a slick ground game, won’t panic during scrambles and is a cerebral fighter. I don’t know that he will submit Sanchez, but he’s good enough to beat him by points in a decision. Take Thiago -125

Gabriel Gonzaga -165 vs. Brendan Schaub +135

Great matchmaking by Joe Silva here. Schaub gets a great test to see if he’s ready for the next tier in the UFC heavyweight division and Gonzaga gets a chance to remain relevant with a victory. Schaub has rebounded from his Ultimate Finale loss to Roy Nelson with two consecutive 1st round TKOs. Gonzaga has had the misfortune of facing Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin in 2 of his last 3 fights. Gonzaga has an excellent ground game that he doesn’t get to feature much with all the big boys throwing hands, but this might be the fight that he gets to use it. Take Gonzaga -165.

Matt Hamill -170 vs. Tito Ortiz +140

The protege takes on his teacher as former TUF contestant Matt Hamill takes on his coach on the show, Tito Ortiz. Matt Hamill will simply overwhelm Tito on the ground. Neither are good strikers, but Hamill is stronger and younger and should be able to point it out against Tito. Take Hamill -170.

Jake Shields -220 vs. Martin Kampmann +180

Jake Shields took Dan Henderson’s best shot and kept going. He then proceeded to beat Hendo up and and win unanimously after 5 rounds. He hasn’t lost since 2004 and he’s not going to lose to Martin Kampmann. Shields by submission, sooner or later. Take Shields -220.

Brock Lesnar -160 vs. Cain Velasquez +130

The props for this fight are as interesting as the matchup itself. But it all comes down to what you think Velasquez is capable of. Can he knock Lesnar out? Carwin couldn’t. Is he really a better wrestler than Lesnar? Doubtful. Does he have better cardio than Lesnar? Yes, but once Lesnar is putting his weight on Velasquez for a few rounds that might change. Velasquez needs a quick KO to win and I just don’t see that happening. Take Lesnar -160.