Two of my picks for the 5 best fights left in 2009 will take place this Saturday at UFC 107. Our free picks will be posted soon, but for now we look at the main event: Diego Sanchez vs. B.J. Penn.
B.J. is 14-5-1. Diego is 21-2. As far as common opponents go, they’ve both beaten Kenny Florian and Joe Stevenson. B.J. submitted Stevenson while Diego won via unanimous decision. B.J. beat up Florian and then submitted him at UFC 101. Diego beat Florian via TKO at The Ultimate Finale 1 back in 2005.
B.J.’s losses are to some big names. He’s lost to Matt Hughes when Hughes was a killer, Jens Pulver when L’il Evil was on top, twice to GSP, and once to Machida in K-1. Diego has lost to Fitch and Koscheck. So how’s it going to go?
Sanchez is considerably stronger than he was in the past and he is built to go the distance. B.J. has proven that his endurance and desire are strong, something that was questioned in the past. He’s also been unbeatable at 155 lbs.
Diego has lost 2 decisions. He’s never been submitted. Never been knocked out. Diego will survive all that B.J. throws at him. Then Diego Sanchez is going to rock B.J. Penn and hurt him. And the UFC will have a new lightweight champion.
Diego Sanchez by KO/TKO in round 3. Believe it.
9 Responses to “UFC 107 Breakdown: B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez”
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Finally someone gives a realistic prediction. Diego will be the new King at 155.
Amen to that Brother, YES YES YES !
Man do I hope you’re right! He may be a quirky guy, but man do I want him to win!!
Lol – Are you serious? Diego Sanchez is going to finish BJ Penn? Reality check – BJ via rear-naked choke in rd3.
[WORDPRESS HASHCASH] The poster sent us ’0 which is not a hashcash value.
Going to rock him and hurt him? When has BJ ever been rocked – only ever a conditioning issue which is moot in this case and he looks ripped – I respect Diego and I think it could be a tough fight – but you are on the wrong side of reality on this one.
Sanchez has never seen a fighter like BJ and I think he may be his best version ever in this fight – this fight will end the naysayers.
“Then Diego Sanchez is going to rock B.J. Penn and hurt him. And the UFC will have a new lightweight champion.” That made my day. Sanchez is going to get his ass beat by the Prodigy.
Sanchez is a beast and no disrespect to BJ Penn–who is a hell of a fighter as well–this is a great position from a value standpoint. You can find Sanchez inside the distance (basically the same thing as Sanchez by KO/TKO/Sub) at +400 meaning that’s a theoretical break even of 20%. Decision is unlikely between these two going five rounds, and even if you think Penn is dominant enough to win 70% to 75% of the time that still gives you an overlay on Sanchez. Well done.
Diego Sanchez lost.
Genius, Koncrete.