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Added November 6th, 2012 by Chalk

Thursday Night NFL: Colts @ Jaguars

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are off to a surprising 5-3 start, and will look to keep the good times rolling on Thursday night as they visit the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts are three-point road favorites (-185 if you prefer the money line). The Colts have lost three straight to the Jaguars, including Jacksonville’s first and so far only win this season which came in Indy back in Week Three.

Since that win in Indianapolis, the Jaguars have lost five straight, including a 31-14 home loss to the Lions on Sunday. The Jaguars failed to cover Sunday as six-point underdogs, dropping them to 4-4 Against The Spread this season and to 0-4 ATS at home. The Colts have won and covered three straight games, including a 23-20 home win over the Dolphins on Sunday. For the season, Indy is 5-3 ATS, but only 1-2 ATS in road games.

As for the head-to-head matchups, the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2009, with even Peyton Manning’s 2010 Colts squad losing 31-28 in Jacksonville two seasons ago.  The last three Colts-Jaguars matchups have all gone Under.

The Over/Under on Thursday’s game is set at 42.5 points. The last three Colts games have gone Under, as have five of Indy’s eight games this season.  However, two of Indy’s three road games have gone Over.  Jaguars games have evenly split between Over and Under both overall and at home.

If I were a wagering man, I’d take the Colts and the Under.

 
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