Most decent sportsbooks offer some form of betting on tonight’s Academy Awards, but its getting tougher to find value.  In several of the major categories this year–really most of the acting awards–there’s very little drama about who’ll get the gold ‘Oscar’ statue and they’re priced accordingly.  What we’ll do is go through the major categories and tell you who’ll likely win and where you can bet it at the best price.  Then we’ll hit some of the lower profile categories and try to find the best wagering value.

If you were with us for our in depth analysis of the Superbowl proposition bets you’ll recall an associate of mine who is legendary for his dominance of non-sport wagering, particularly entertainment bets.  He agreed to provide his insight for this post, and there’s really no one sharper at betting the Oscars than this guy.  He provided this overview of how he determines the winners and the state of Academy Award betting:

It’s getting harder and harder to find any good value on the Oscars.  The books are getting sharper or else they don’t take action on anything other than the major awards.  The sportsbooks that are still taking action on the technical awards and other less significant categories know what they’re doing a lot more than they used to.  In fact, I’ve consulted with some of them.  Back in the early days of the offshore sportsbook boom they were just interested in getting the action and I guess like so many other non-sport props they didn’t think anyone sharp would seriously try to get the better of them.  So now you’ve got low limits and much sharper prices on everything.

I guess the most important thing to emphasize to  your readers is that I don’t really ‘handicap’ the Oscar awards as such.  What I mean by that is that I don’t look at everything from a qualitative standpoint and make a case that this film ‘deserves’ to win and this other one doesn’t.  That’s film criticism, and it may be interesting but its not going to produce any profits.  What we do is try to identify who is voting on the awards, what they’re voting for and then do statistical modeling based on that information.  The technical awards are easy, since they all have their own professional groups that give out awards and there’s a lot of overlap in the voting membership.  The major awards are a little tougher to get a consensus on, but the same concepts apply.  For the purpose of betting on the Oscars, I have no opinion about the films themselves.  We just try to use some statistical analysis to figure out who’ll win.  It’s been very successful over the years, but the problem now is that you can’t find the prices you need to make it a positive overlay situation.

In other words, if you don’t agree with these selections don’t shoot the messengers.  We’re just trying to figure out who will win not whether they deserve it or not.  We’ll start with the acting awards, which have little suspense and offer little in the way of betting value.

BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart -800 at BetUS.  Bridges won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama and won the best actor award from the Screen Actors’ Guild.  The SAG Award has been a solid predictor of the Oscar winner with 10 of the 14 winners since its creation going on to win the Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side -225 at BetUS.  This may be the best value of the acting awards.  Like the Best Actor award, the Screen Actors Guild winner has gone on to win 9 of 14 Oscars.  Bullock won the Golden Globe and SAG Awards like Bridges.  Her price is lower since Meryl Streep is nominated in the category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’Nique/Precious -1850 at Bookmaker.  Mo’nique won the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTA Award (essentially the British counterpart to the Oscars).  May be the biggest ‘lock’ of the acting awards and is priced accordingly.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds.  -2650 at Bookmaker.  Has won just about every significant critic’s award and industry award for his role including the 2009 Cannes Film Festival Best Actor and the Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe, SAG and from critics’ groups like the New York Film Critics Circle, Boston Society of Film Critics, and  Los Angeles Film Critics Association among many others.

BEST DIRECTOR: Katheryn Bigelow/The Hurt Locker. -600 at BetUS. Bigelow won the BAFTA Award and the Director’s Guild Award for Best Director.  Only the fourth female director ever nominated for an Oscar and would be the first to win.

BEST PICTURE: Avatar. +100 at Bookmaker.  Lots of controversy over Nicolas Chartier, producer of ‘The Hurt Locker’ for breaking Academy rules by sending out a mass email lobbying for votes and taking a swipe at ‘Avatar’.   There’s been a bit of a Hurt Locker backlash on other fronts as well.  Avatar would be the first film to win Best Picture without winning any major critics awards or the big industry nods (SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA).

BEST BETTING VALUES:

BEST ACTRESS/SANDRA BULLOCK -225
BEST PICTURE/AVATAR +100
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY/THE HURT LOCKER +180 at Bookmaker
BEST FOREIGN FILM/A PROPHET +200 at Bookmaker

BEST LONG SHOT:

BEST ACTRESS/CAREY MULLIGAN +1000 at BetUs