The Superbowl will kick off in just over 24 hours, and not much new in the way of storylines.  We’ll be back this evening with a few more posts on Superbowl betting strategy and our final call on the side and total in the game.

Most sportsbooks in Nevada and offshore have seen some slight movement in the line as additional Indy money comes in, as well as money on the Over.  This isn’t really surprising, and likely reflects casual players getting down on the game playing the favorite and the ‘Over’ as they so often do. There are more -5 and -5′ out there today, and a few places that have the total bumped up to 57 from 56′.  Bodog is now offering the following price on the game, which might be the best play out there for Saints backers:

New Orleans Saints +6 -125
Indianapolis Colts -6 +105

Bookmaker has the game priced as follows:

New Orleans Saints +5′ -110
Indianapolis Colts -5′ -110

Both sportsbooks have the total posted at 57, with at least one 57′ on my live odds feed at the moment.

I don’t really expect to see any significant movement off of the current prices beyond a half point here or there, and particularly on the side.  The current line is between the ‘key numbers’ of 3 and 6 so movement from, say 5 to 4′ or from 5 to 5′ isn’t particularly significant at this stage of the game.  My hunch is that most of the ‘big money’ action has already taken a position on the game.  While some money has come in on Indy/Over it doesn’t look like its an across the board line movement.  The proximity to the ‘key number’ of 6 will likely keep it in the 5 or 5′ range at the top end.

If you haven’t bet the game yet, you can still get a good price.  If you like the Saints, I’d grab the +6 -125 at BoDog. If you’re a Colts backer you’ll probably have to settle for 5 or 5′.  I’m someone who is obsessive about shopping for the best possible line, but at this point I wouldn’t knock myself out looking for a -4′ if I can easily get a -5.

Not much new on the injury front–the Colts’ Reggie Wayne practiced today, Dwight Freeney didn’t.  The Saints are maintaining the party line that ‘he’s improving’ without any sort of speculation of whether or not he’ll play.  At this point, I wouldn’t expect to see him and clearly he won’t be anywhere near 100%.  Were I Jim Caldwell, I’d much rather have a healthy Raheem Brock than a hobbled Dwight Freeney.

Weather won’t be a factor either, as the forecast is calling for clear skies and warm temperatures.  There’s been some rain this week, and the natural grass in Miami will be a much slower surface than the turf both of these dome teams are used to playing on.

Finally, thanks to Deadspin for linking to Hunter S. Thompson’s classic ‘Fear and Loathing at the Superbowl’ which is a must read.  Thompson was a lifelong sports fan and betting enthusiast, and his take on the mainstream sports media still rings true today:

There is a dangerous kind of simple-minded Power/Precision worship at the root of the massive fascination with pro football in this country, and sportswriters are mainly responsible for it. With a few rare exceptions like Bob Lipsyte of The New York Times and Tom Quinn of the (now-defunct) Washington Daily News, sportswriters are a kind of rude and brainless subculture of fascist drunks whose only real function is to publicize & sell whatever the sports editor sends them out to cover….

Which is a nice way to make a living, because it keeps a man busy and requires no thought at all. The two keys to success as a sportswriter are: 1) A blind willingness to believe anything you’re told by the coaches, flacks, hustlers and other “official spokesmen” for the team-owners who provide the free booze … and: 2) A Roget’s Thesaurus, in order to avoid using the same verbs and adjectives twice in the same paragraph.

Fear and Loathing at the Superbowl by Hunter S. Thompson