Of the countless companies trying to work the Superbowl for some mainstream media attention, this one actually makes sense.  It even has something of a Superbowl betting hook.  EA Sports, the company behind the insanely popular ‘Madden NFL’ videogame franchise, have started a tradition where they simulate the Superbowl on their game platform.  They’ve been doing it since 2004 and have failed to pick the straight up winner only once (that was the Giants upset of New England).  So what does the EA Madden simulation reveal about the Saints vs. Colts matchup?

The EA Sports simulation gave the game to New Orleans in a wild, high scoring and back and forth affair.  Here’s the general idea from ESPN:

So what happened when the Madden folks at EA ran the Saints and Colts through their simulator?

Here’s a taste:

Down 31-28 with less than two minutes left on the clock, Drew Brees, in a career-defining drive, marched the Saints 78 yards down the field, then delivered the game-winning 11-yard touchdown pass to David Thomas to give New Orleans the shocking 35-31 upset over the Colts.

The high-scoring contest went back and forth, with the Saints scoring 14 fourth-quarter points thanks to Brees’ late-game heroics and a 46-yard Reggie Bush punt return that swung momentum in New Orleans’ favor just when it looked as if Indianapolis might pull away.

Brees finished the game completing 25 of 37 passes for 299 yards, including three touchdowns, and tossing one interception on his way to being named Super Bowl MVP.

Though I don’t recommend making your betting decisions based on the outcome of a video game, you probably could do a lot worse.  Football video games have come along way since that Atari arcade game with the X’s and O’s and the tracball controller.  They’re now highly detailed, statistically accurate simulations and a far cry from the Tecmo Bowl.

An even better writeup is found at Kotaku.com. who began their analysis with this caveat:

Note: The following is for amusement purposes only. None of it constitutes a forward-looking statement. Past performance is no indicator of future success. If you are somehow stupid enough to bet on professional sports using a console video game as a mathematical model, seek professional help immediately.

They then replayed the game with a number of possible contingencies, like Dwight Freeney being injured, Reggie Wayne being injured and so forth.  They even run through a number of weather related scenarios (blizzard, monsoon) and consider some downright absurd possibilities like this one:

Colts versus Saints, centers and quarterbacks swapped
I don’t mean Jeff Saturday goes to New Orleans; I mean Manning snaps the ball to Saturday, and Jonathan Goodwin has his hands up under Brees’ butt. What’s the over/under on completions? Which golden boy do you think gets plowed first? All four players instantly become the worst on their teams. Saturday is a 12-rated quarterback; Manning’s a 22-rated center. Goodwin is likewise a 12 at QB, but Brees is a 21-rated center, probably because he’s 6-0 to Manning’s 6-5.

You should have seen the pregame animations. My screen went blank for at least five seconds while the game chugged along, clearly wondering why it was rendering Saturday in a passing animation. He did have pretty nice form. Looked like a fatter Dan Fouts actually.

The first play is a four yard rush by Saturday. Then he throws an interception. Goodwin likewise rushes on his first play, for three yards. Goodwin is then sacked but the Saints get a field goal on their first drive. And then on first and 10 from Indy’s 46, Goodwin tosses a 46-yard touchdown pass to Moore for the 10-0 lead.

The Colts manage to tie it at 17-17 in the fourth quarter, but New Orleans pulls away to win 27-17. The damage report: Saturday is 6-for-29, 59 yards and three interceptions. Goodwin is an insane 8-for-36 for 142 yards and two TDs, but four interceptions. The Saints are 3-for-16 on third downs to the Colts’ 3-for-17, but incredibly, both teams are 100 percent in the red zone. Saturday is sacked eight times to Goodwin’s six. Three Saints starters are knocked out of the game, but not Brees. Manning likewise survives, likely owing to high durability ratings for both.

Here’s some video from ESPN’s game sim story…