We’ll get to the ‘main event’ of our week long Superbowl betting preview now, starting with the total on Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. The total for Superbowl 44 opened at 52 and has been bet up since, with most sportsbooks now offering 56′ or 57. It’s at 57 at both Bodog and Bookmaker, and could climb a point or so before kickoff.

First, a little historical perspective.  The O/U number of 57 is now the highest in Superbowl history and barring a freak monsoon hitting South Florida it’ll certainly close as the highest total in the 44 year history of the game.  The previous high was 2008, when the total on the Giants/Patriots Superbowl was set at 55.  That number was never threatened, with the two teams combining for 31 total points.

6 of the last 10 Superbowl games have gone ‘Under’ the total including four of the last five.  More significantly, its important to consider the total of 57 in context of Superbowl history.  None of the last five games have seen more than 50 points scored, and only 2 of the last 14 have seen more than 57.

When first considering this matchup in particular, its obvious why the ‘Over’ looks inviting.  Both teams feature phenomenal quarterbacks and productive pass oriented offenses.  Neither team has a particularly dominant defense.   The Colts’ defense has stepped up when they’ve had to this year, but they’ll likely be without their best pass rusher in Dwight Freeney.

Despite this case for the game going ‘Over’ the total, all of my score projections have suggested just the opposite.  One thing to keep in mind is that both the Saints and Colts are dome teams used to playing on artificial turf.  While the game time weather should be favorable, there has been a decent amount of rain in South Florida over the past couple of weeks.  Furthermore, the Pro Bowl was played on this field one week ago and the turf hasn’t been replaced.  No doubt the groundskeeping crew will have it in decent shape, but even best case scenario it’ll be slower and ‘heavier’ than what both teams are used to playing on.

While its easy to oversimplify this game as two pass happy offenses against two serviceable at best defenses,  I’m having a hard time envisioning the game playing out like an Arena Football contest.  None of my score forecasts support this scenario either.  All of my numbers suggest a final score total in the low 50′s which isn’t much of an overlay, but obviates a play on the ‘Under’.

Obviously these teams are capable of putting a ton of points on the board if everything breaks just the right way.  To bet on sports successfully, however, its never advisable to bet on the ‘best case scenario’.  Both teams will get their points, but I don’t see them getting enough to justify the highest total in Superbowl history.

PLAY INDIANAPOLIS/NEW ORLEANS UNDER 57