The next few Superbowl betting posts will focus on prop bets addressing individual player performances.  As we’ve discussed in the past, on balance the astute handicapper is best served making the negative position his first consideration in Superbowl prop bets.  The reason for that is simple–no game attracts as much ‘public’ action as the Superbowl and the casual sports bettor would much rather bet that something *will* happen than for something to *not* happen.  Sportsbooks know this, and will often make the Yes/Over position pay a premium in the moneyline, O/U number, etc.

Indianapolis finished dead last in the NFL in rushing yardage, so obviously they’re not going to all of a sudden become a run oriented team in the Superbowl.  Despite their lack of a productive rushing game, Joseph Addai is a serviceable running back.  Simply stated, however, its not going to be his game to win or lose and for that reason we’ll look for some ‘Under’ positions concerning Addai.  We’ll start with a bet from Bodog on Addai’s total rushing yardage:

Total Rushing Yards for Joseph Addai:

OV 65′ YARDS -125
UN 65′ YARDS -105

First of all, in all of our analysis of Indy players’ regular season performance we’ll throw out their last two games in which they rested starters to prepare for the playoffs.  In the Colts’ first 14 regular season games Addai averaged 56 yards per game and has averaged 52 yards per game in two playoff contests.  He did rush for 80 yards against the NY Jets in the AFC Conference Championship and that gives us some decent line value here.  Looking at this prop from another perspective, Addai gained more than 65′ yards in only 4 of 14 regular season games and 1 of 2 playoff games for 5 ‘Over’ rushing performances in 17 games.

PLAY JOSEPH ADDAI TOTAL RUSHING YARDS–UNDER 65′ -105

We also like a position on Addai’s longest run from scrimmage, again at Bodog:

Joseph Addai Longest Run From Scrimmage:

OVER 13′ YARDS -130
UNDER 13′ YARDS +100

Although Addai did have 10 games with a 14+ yard ‘longest run we look for him to be limited to short yardage situations here and will play accordingly.

PLAY JOSEPH ADDAI LONGEST RUN UNDER 13′ YARDS +100

Related posts:

1. Superbowl Betting: Drew Brees Interceptions
2. Hop on Props: Betting Superbowl Prop Bets
3. Superbowl Betting Props: Will There Be A Safety?
4. Superbowl Betting: The Blocked Punt Prop
5. Superbowl Betting: Colts vs. Saints Pointspread Selection