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Added February 2nd, 2010 by David Glisan

Superbowl Betting Props:  The Stock Market

We’ll finish up the ‘non sport’ Superbowl betting props today and get in to the actual game props and the side and total analysis.  As with the other ‘non sport’ props we’ve covered this one is from Bodog.  Bodog has an insane number and variety of prop bets for Superbowl 44 so if you don’t have an account there already hurry up and go get one!

The next prop bet we’ll cover has to do with the performance of the NY Stock Exchange on the day after the Superbowl.  While this may seem like a somewhat arbitrary relationship, there’s actually an extensive history of the Superbowl ‘predicting’ the performance of the market in the coming year.  Financial types call this the ‘Super Bowl Predictor’ and it works like this–if the NFC team wins, the market will finish up for the year.  If the AFC team wins, the market will finish down for the year.

Obviously, there’s no significant causation that influences the market based on the Superbowl outcome but the predictor does have an impressive track record.  Its been correct 77% of the time.  Washington and Lee University professor of finance George Kessler offers this explanation:

Here’s what the Super Bowl Predictor maintains: If the team that wins the Super Bowl has its roots in the original National Football League, the market will increase. If the winning team was originally from the old American Football League, the market will decline.

“My very tongue-in-cheek explanation for this phenomenon is based on the first time that a team from the old AFL won, which was Super Bowl III in 1969, when the upstart New York Jets and quarterback ‘Broadway’ Joe Namath stunned the heavily favored Baltimore Colts,” Kester said. “Investors thought the Jets’ upset victory meant there must be something amiss in America and it was time to sell, and that’s been built into the American psyche ever since.”

The Bodog prop is a little trickier, as it deals only with the performance of the market the day after the game:

What will happen with the Stock Market the day after Super Bowl XLIV?

Saints Win/Market Up  15/4
Saints Win/Market Down 4/1
Colts Win/Market Up 8/5
Colts Win/Market Down 9/5

There’s a few ways to play this, but the best may be to simply follow the ‘Stock Market Predictor’ and bet Saints Win/Market Up and Colts Win/Market Down.  This will give you a small profit if either wager hits and you’re at least basing it on some sort of statistical rationale.  Alternately, you can pick the team you think will win and play accordingly.  This presents a good betting situation if you think the Saints will win–you can bet both ‘market up’ and ‘market down’ and assuming your call on the game was correct you’ll lock in a profit.  Due to the prices that same strategy won’t work with the Colts–in that case you’re probably better off playing ‘Market Up’ and hoping for the best.

If you want to be a contrarian, you can bet that the stock market will go down should either team win.  Then you can play the Colts/Market Down and Saints/Market down and lock in a small profit.  This will also work for ‘market up’, but the profits will be smaller.

When its all said and done, the best strategy is probably to follow the stock market predictor and play it as follows:

PLAY SAINTS WIN/MARKET UP 15/4
PLAY COLTS WIN/MARKET UP 8/5

 
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