One type of Superbowl betting prop concerns whether or not specific events will occur such as safeties, 2 point conversions and coach’s challenges.  These are often good betting values since they’re not dependent on one outcome or another in the game as a whole.  Obviously, a comparison prop between passing yardage numbers for Drew Brees and Peyton Manning have a lot to do with whether the Colts or Saints win the game.  Other props are fairly easy to handicap based on the wealth of NFL statistical data and Superbowl specific historical performances.

Bodog is offering a prop bet for the outcome of the first coach’s challenge.  No challenge means the bet has no action, so it becomes a fairly easy proposition to handicap.

What will be the result of the first coaches challenge in the game?

Play Stands -115
Play Overturned -115

Experienced NFL fans should see the right side of this proposition immediately.  The NFL has tweaked their instant replay rules over the years, but they still require “incontrovertible visual evidence” for a play to be overturned.  Since the team requesting a review loses a time out if the play doesn’t get reversed, the general idea is that coach’s should be dissuaded from throwing their red flag if they don’t have a good chance of having the decision go their way.  The reality, however, is that this is seldom an issue and particularly in the first half when conserving time outs is less of an issue.   Coach’s will sometimes throw the appeal flag in hopes they’ll get lucky and have a call go their way or even to get their team a ‘breather’.

Despite a variety of replay angles, its often not possible for the referee to have “incontrovertible visual evidence” and for that reason plays are upheld more often than they’re overturned.  Since this bet is giving us the same price for both sides of the proposition, we’ll go with the more common occurance and bet accordingly.

PLAY FIRST COACH’S CHALLENGE–PLAY UPHELD -115