We’ll turn our attention now to some of the ‘performance dependent’ Superbowl betting propositions.  Basically, that’s a fancy way of saying that the outcome of the prop is connected with the outcome of the game.  Despite that fact, its still possible to bet these wagers from a strong statistical rationale.  The ‘public’ tends to overvalue the impact of the overall game outcome in betting this type of prop.  For example, if John Q. Public likes the Colts to win he’s likely to bet ‘Over’ on Peyton Manning’s TD’s, yards, completions, etc. and bet ‘Under’ on the same numbers put up by his Saints counterpart Drew Brees.

The fallacy in that logic should be apparent–statistical performance is not a ‘zero sum’ game.  How often do you hear during the regular season that a team won their game despite being badly outgained in yardage, or despite picking up significantly fewer first downs?  Obviously, there is some correlation between statistical performance and game outcome.  If Peyton Manning or Drew Brees pass for 400 yards it’ll definitely put their team in a better position to win.  Still, there’s not a direct causality between a statistical measurement like yardage and the final score.

Most sportsbooks have a line on whether or not Drew Brees will be intercepted during the game.  Some have it phrased as a yes or no proposition (‘Will Brees throw an INT?’) while others have it as an O/U proposition (O/U 1/2).  Obviously both mean the same thing, and despite differences in their verbiage the same prices are available at Bodog and Bookmaker on this bet.

Will Drew Brees throw an interception?

YES -175
NO +145

One of the most impressive qualities of Drew Brees’ game is his accuracy.  He just doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions, which is even more remarkable given the heavy pass orientation of the New Orleans Saints’ offense.  He finished the 2009 regular season with 11 interceptions in 15 games played (he sat out the Saints’ final game of the year) and has yet to throw a pick in two playoff games.  Looking at it another way, he didn’t throw an interception in 9 of the 17 games he’s played this year between the regular season and playoffs.

To attach a probability to Brees’ likelihood of throwing an interception, he gave up a pick in 47% of his games this season.  So were we thinking of betting ‘Yes’ to the above prop, we’d need a price of somewhere between +110 to +115 to reflect the ‘true odds’ of Brees throwing an interception.  At the price in this prop bet, theoretical break even is 63.6% and that’s a pretty nasty underlay considering the accuracy of the quarterback in question.

So if Brees threw an interception in 47% of his games that means he *didn’t* throw an interception in 53% of his games.  The ‘true odds’ in moneyline format for that probability would be roughly -113.  In other words, the wrong side is favored here and the ‘No’ is a very nice overlay.  Theoretical break even at +145 is 40.82%, meaning that even if Brees had been intercepted in 60% of his games we’d still be getting a little value.  As it stands, we’re getting a solid overlay on the ‘No’ and that’s the way we’ll play it.

PLAY ‘WILL DREW BREES THROW AN INTERCEPTION?’–NO +145