The most significant Superbowl betting selection is the pointspread winner between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts.  At this writing, most sportsbooks have the Colts as a -4′ or -5 favorite.  Bodog is an exception, offering +6 on the Saints with a -120 moneyline and -6 on the Colts at +100.  Bookmaker currently has the Colts as a -5′ choice.

As is typically the case in Superbowl betting, the early money came in on the favored Colts and the ‘Over’.  We’ve since had some buyback on the Saints, but the total hasn’t really moved downward.  My initial position on this game was to lay the points with the Colts.  Basically, it came down to Peyton Manning’s experience, the luxury of having a ‘go to’ superstar receiver like Reggie Wayne and the relative superiority of the Colts’ defense.

Boiler room sports touts like to scream that they’ve got ABSOLUTELY THE RIGHT SIDE in the Superbowl (and every other game) but based on all of my score projections this isn’t a game that will see a blowout victory for either team.  My forecasts suggest a competitive game throughout, with the Colts prevailing by 7 to 10 points.  As a result, laying the points is the play based on my statistical analysis but its not exactly a huge overlay.

The biggest question mark since the Superbowl line was posted is the status of Indy’s Dwight Freeney, but its important to keep in mind that his questionable status has been factored into the line all along.  He’ll be missed if as expected he’s unable to play, but as we’ve discussed extensively in the past the betting public has a tendency to overvalue the significance of injuries to the outcome of an individual game.   They’re certainly important on a ‘macro’ scale and if the Colts were forced to play the entire season without him that would be a problem.  On a ‘micro’ level, however, the impact of injuries to even major star players is overestimated by the betting public which in turn gets reflected in the betting line.  If you’ve followed our daily free picks in the NBA and NHL you know full well the line value in going against short term injury situations, and the dynamic is the same here despite the stakes being higher.

Although I respect him, I’m not one of these Peyton Manning honks that act as if he walks on water.  Still, objectively its impossible not to acknowledge his talent, and more significantly, his head for the game.  The Saints’ Drew Brees is certainly no slouch himself, and is easily one of the top five QBs in the game.  Manning, however, is arguably the smartest QB of all time and ranks among the best half dozen or so ever.  The Saints’ secondary had their hands full with ‘the ol’ gunslinger’ Brett Favre in the NFC Championship game and were it not for some bad decision making on his part New Orleans could have been watching this game from home.  Manning isn’t a ‘gunslinger’–he’s a surgeon and is capable of methodically shredding the Saints’ porous secondary.

From a handicapping standpoint, team experience in the Superbowl used to be a major factor.  In the age of free agency, the fact that one franchise has been to a Superbowl and their opponent hasn’t is relatively meaningless.  In fact, four of the last five teams making their Superbowl debut covered the pointspread including Arizona last year. What isn’t meaningless, however, is the experience level of the quarterback leading the team.  This is Drew Brees’ first Superbowl and only his fourth postseason game.  He’s a solid pro and will likely handle the pressure well, but we *know* that Manning won’t be cowed by the setting.

Ultimately, I put much of my handicapping confidence in my statistical analysis of sports betting matchups and that’s no different here.  And no matter what variables I consider in terms of injuries, matchups, strength of schedule, etc. it keeps coming back to a Colts win by 7 to 10 points.  I can sure see a case for playing the underdog in most situations–and in the past decade, taking the points in the Superbowl has been money in the bank–but every component of my handicapping methodology leads me to the same conclusion that I came to instinctively moments after the Superbowl line was posted.  This won’t be a blowout, but the Colts will prevail by more than the pointspread.

PLAY INDIANAPOLIS -5 OVER NEW ORLEANS