The big MMA event of the weekend will be Strikeforce Miami, taking place at the BankAtlantic Center on Saturday night.  Not a lot of great betting value on the card, with mostly prohibitive favorites matched up against underdogs that its difficult to make a case for.  Still, we’ll run down the odds and give my thoughts on each fight.  The event will be televised on Showtime in the United States.  You can also follow the action live online:

Strikeforce Miami live play by play coverage

Strikeforce Miami will get underway on Saturday night at 10 PM Eastern/7 PM Pacific.  Lines below are from BoDog.

STRIKEFORCE MIAMI:

NICK DIAZ VS. MARIUS ZAROMSKIS

Nick Diaz -210
Marius Zaromskis +170

This fight is for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight title.  We previewed this fight in great detail earlier this week, and we talked in even more detail about the enigmatic Nick Diaz.  Zaromskis is the reigning welterweight champion of the Japanese MMA promotion DREAM and has become feared for his lethal high left kick a la Mirko Cro Cop.  He’s won his last three fights with this devastating move, and its particularly scary since he’s shown an ability to launch it out of nowhere.  He doesn’t ‘headhunt’ and look for it, he just finds openings and turns his opponent’s lights out.  The biggest rap on Zaromskis is that with the exception of his DREAM welterweight GP opponents Hayato ‘Mach’ Sakurai and Jason High he’s not fought a particularly high level of competition. Diaz is a huge step up in class for him here.

Zaromskis has a puncher’s chance…er…a *kicker’s* chance…but Diaz is a tough opponent to stop.  He lost to KJ Noons on a cut and was TKO’d in his 5th pro fight back in 2002 but hasn’t otherwise been stopped inside the distance.  Zaromskis has an unorthodox striking style, but Diaz is one of the best boxers in MMA and should be able to keep him off balance in this manner.  Ultimately, Diaz is a much more complete fighter and should take the victory here.

PLAY NICK DIAZ -210 OVER MARIUS ZAROMSKIS

MELVIN MANHOEF VS. ROBBIE LAWLER

Melvin Manhoef -200
Robbie Lawler +160

DREAM and K-1 veteran Melvin Manhoef will make his second US appearance on this card taking on tough vet Robbie Lawler.  Manhoef is the personification of a ‘one dimensional fighter’.  He’s a lethal striker and has the power in both hands to put anyone to sleep.  On the ground, however, he’s downright inept.  He’s lost 4 MMA fights since 2005, all by submission.  Lawler doesn’t really have the skill set to exploit his weakness, however, which is largely why he was chosen to be Manhoef’s opponent here.  Lawler will want to trade, and trading with Manhoef seldom ends well for anyone.

PLAY MELVIN MANHOEF -200 OVER ROBBIE LAWLER

JAY HIERON VS. JOE RIGGS

Jay Hieron -325
Joe Riggs +250

Jay Hieron takes on well traveled vet Joe ‘Diesel’ Riggs in a welterweight matchup.  Riggs’ experience relative to his age is borderline ridiculous–he’s had 44 pro fights but is only 27!  Riggs has 11 losses on his record but in the past few years all have come to the very highest level of opposition including Diego Sanchez, Matt Hughes, Kazuo Misaki and Mike Swick.  Hieron is very highly regarded by MMA hardcores.  He competed extensively in the IFL but hasn’t done much since then, with most of his fights against second tier opposition.  Heiron should win, but can’t advise playing him at the price.  On the other hand, Riggs is a very dangerous dog and with so many other high priced favorites on our wagering ticket no reason not to take a shot on an experienced pro who has fought the best.

PLAY JOE RIGGS +250 OVER JAY HIERON

HERSCHEL WALKER VS. GREY NAGY

Herschel Walker -500
Greg Nagy +300

We addressed Herschel Walker’s MMA debut at great length in an earlier article.  Obviously this is the former NFL superstar’s MMA debut and he’ll face an opponent he can beat in Greg Nagy.  Nagy has a 1-1 career mark, with his loss coming to a 2-1 fighter in Francisco Navarro and his win over 0-1 Robert Principato.  Who knows what will happen here?  Obviously Nagy is a ‘beatable’ opponent, but no interest in backing Walker at the price.  On the other hand, no interest on the underdog either.

PASS