With the possible exception of gangsta rappers and kung fu movie characters, no subset of humanity talks more about ‘revenge’ than sports handicappers.  The premise is simple and, to some extent, valid:  a team that has lost a game will have greater motivation the next time they face the same opponent.  Unfortunately, like so much else in handicapping the concept has been ‘dumbed down’ by boiler room touts.  There were plenty of wanna-be ‘wise guys’ crowing about the Arizona Cardinals having ‘revenge’ against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their opening preseason game due to their Superbowl loss.  Of course the first exhibition game of the year and the Superbowl are ‘apples and oranges’ and those who bought into the concept of the Cards ‘playing with revenge’ were left holding their losing tickets after the Steelers won.

The moral of the story is simple and obvious:  not all games are created equal.  Hindsight being 20/20, the Cardinals would have proved nothing had they come out all fired up in the first preseason game of the year and beat up on the Steelers.  Not only would it have been a meaningless exercise, they would have looked downright silly acting as if there was some vindication with a victory.  No doubt that every player on the team would like to have another crack at the Superbowl, but even though the team on the other side of the field in mid August was the Pittsburgh Steelers it was still another meaningless preseason game.  The teams were the same, but the stakes were drastically different.

Saturday’s SEC Championship game, on the other hand, is a perfect revenge spot.  Not only are the teams the same as last year but so are the stakes.  The winner of the Florida/Alabama matchup will not only be SEC champs but will all but certainly get an invite to the BCS Championship game.  And that’s where we’ll begin our handicap:

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME–ALABAMA VS. FLORIDA

Nick Saban is in his third year at Alabama, and he gets a second chance to do what only one coach (Gene Stallings in 1992) has done since the days of Bear Bryant and bring home a National Championship.  He came very close last year when the Crimson Tide led Florida 20-17 heading into the fourth quarter of the SEC championship game before eventually losing (and failing to cover as +10 underdogs) 31-20.

Last year’s Florida team was one of the most formidable in the history of college football, but obfuscated by the team’s undefeated record is the fact that this year’s Gator squad simply isn’t as dominant.  Sure, their offensive numbers look good but they’re embellished by big numbers against lousy opponents (62 points against both Charleston Southern and Florida International).  This team struggled in the red zone for much of the SEC campaign, and survived unscathed due to their defense.  Here, they face a defense that is just as good if not better.  Florida allowed 9.8 points per game, Alabama 10.8 but in conference it was the Crimson Tide that held the edge in scoring defense (10.6 to 12.0).

From a statistical standpoint alone, this game should be a ‘pick’em’ but due to public perception Florida is a -5′ point favorite.  Making matters worse for the Gators is the fact that they’ll be without the 2009 BCS Championship Game MVP Carlos Dunlap who has been suspended from this game after a DUI arrest.  Florida head coach Urban Meyer’s comments to the media today should underscore the difficulty that the Gators will have not only in repeating as national champions but as SEC champions:

“We’ve had distraction after distraction. This is a rather serious one, obviously, so it is a distraction. Sometimes this team’s found ways to get a little tighter in distractions. We’ve had a few of them this year.”

And how did the line react to the announcement that Florida will be without their biggest defensive playmaker? It didn’t move, demonstrating that line movements don’t always accurately reflect injuries and suspensions.

So we’ve got a game that is a statistical toss up, and Alabama is playing with *serious* revenge as an underdog.  At worst its a ‘coin flip’, meaning that a moneyline play on Alabama (+190 at Bookmaker) is a nice overlay.  We’ll make our official call on the pointspread, however, but don’t expect it’ll come into play as the Crimson Tide wins this one outright.

PLAY ALABAMA +5′ OVER FLORIDA