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The second leg of the Triple Crown takes place Saturday at Baltimore’s Pimlico Race Course with the Preakness Stakes.   The race features many of the same suspects that we saw in the Kentucky Derby, along with a few ‘fresh faces’ that skipped the ‘Run For The Roses’.  One thing we won’t see is the insanely huge field that ran two weeks ago at Churchill Downs.  Originally, there were 13 horses entered in the Preakness but only 12 will start on Saturday after Hurricane Ike was forced to withdraw due to lameness in his left hind leg.

THE PREAKNESS STAKES

This should be a much different race than the Kentucky Derby, primarily due to what we *won’t* see:

—We won’t see a ridiculously huge field: The 20 horse field at the Kentucky Derby looked more like a rodeo than a horse race.  We’ll have a manageable 12 horse field on Saturday.

—Not much speed in the race: After a Kentucky Derby that had a lot of speed in the field (the effect of which was negated to a considerable extent by the sloppy track) the Preakness really doesn’t have a true ‘speed’ horse that will force the pace.

—No rain and/or slop: Saturday looks like a perfect day for racing at Pimlico.  The forecast for Baltimore calls for sunny skies and temperatures in the high 70’s.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver is the morning line favorite at 5/2, a far cry from his Derby odds of 8/1.  We’re thinking its his race to lose and we’ll definitely be using him in our wagering mix.  What we love about Super Saver is his ability to maneuver through the field, which is a highly underrated quality in race horses.   At the Derby, Calvin Borel–who owns Churchill Downs–picked a line and Super Saver executed perfectly under very challenging conditions due to the track conditions and size of the field.  Super Saver is also a very versatile horse–he doesn’t need the lead or to come off the pace.  His speed is underrated–he turned an impressive 104 Beyer in the Kentucky Derby.  His consistency could be his best attribute, as he’s never really run a bad race.

The big question not only about Super Saver but a number of the other horses in the field is how they’ll react to the short turnaround from the Kentucky Derby.  Every indication is that Super Saver has been training well, so we’re not thinking its a huge concern.  Nevertheless, we’ll also recommend a position on a long shot who skipped the Kentucky Derby.   We’ve been big on another one of Todd Pletcher’s horses, Aikenite, for awhile now.  Our concern here is that he’s drawn the rail which might not be as big of an issue at this distance with a relatively small field.  Besides that, the questions about Aikenite are the typical ones that you encounter in this race–how will he deal with the distance?  While we’d have no issue with using Aikenite to win (he is 20-1 after all) or in exotics, a better position could be on Yawanna Twist.  He’s never finished lower than 2nd, and last race 5 weeks ago.  His trainer, Rick Dutrow, had a Preakness winner in 2008 with Big Brown.  At the price (30-1 on the morning line) its tough to pass up.

PLAY SUPER SAVER TO WIN THE PREAKNESS AT 5-2
PLAY YAWANNA TWIST TO WIN THE PREAKNESS AT 30-1

EXACTA:  We’ll put Super Saver up top and a few other likely candidates underneath.  If you want to get cute, you can also use Yawanna Twist up top with the 1-8-6-10 beneath.

EXACTA:  8/1-5-6-10

TRIFECTA:  We’ll use a box of 1-5-8-10 for the Trifecta.

TRIFECTA: 8-1-5-10 Box