If you’ve watched any of the previous NHL Winter Classics you know full well what I’m talking about when I say that there’s really nothing cooler than playing hockey outside.  On New Year’s Day, Boston’s Fenway Park will host this year’s edition as the Boston Bruins take on the Philadelphia Flyers.  From a sports betting standpoint, of course, this changes the entire dynamic of the NHL handicapping process.  In fact, there’s really not much to go on.  Weather can be a factor, and based on the forecasts could impact this year’s game as well.

NHL WINTER CLASSIC–BOSTON BRUINS VS. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

In the modern era, there have been three NHL regular season games played outside with the first in 2002.  Oddly enough, all have been won by the visiting team but this is certainly a coincidence and not a legitimate trend.  It’s hard to get much from the way the games have been played either.  In 2003, Montreal beat Edmonton 4-3 at Commonwealth Stadium.  In 2008, the Buffalo Sabres lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.  Last year, the Detroit Red Wings beat the Chicago Blackhawks 6-4 at Wrigley Field.

There’s a couple of subtle rule differences in place to account for the impact of weather conditions.  To make sure that one team doesn’t have an advantage playing with or against the wind for an extra period, the teams switch sides midway through the third period to make things nice and even.  This year, the NHL has even come up with a bad weather contingency plan in case things get really nasty.  The referee has the authority to call the game after two periods and it be counted as ‘official’ for the league standings.  So what would this mean for NHL bets?  At most books, an early stoppage would make all bets a ‘no play’ since most sportsbooks operate under a rule that all games must go 55 minutes to have action.  Since this will be nationally televised and an early stoppage would mess up the NBC advertising rotation every effort will be made to get all three periods completed.

The weather this weekend may or may not be a factor.  The forecast for tomorrow in the Greater Boston area calls for temperatures right around freezing and a chance of snow showers.  The game starts at 1:05 Eastern, and the hourly forecast shows a three hour window between 12:00 and 3:00 local time where the sun is expected to come out so they might be able to get the game in during this time.

As far as handicapping the game, both teams have similar records and both have played well recently with the Flyers winning four straight on the road and the Bruins winning four of their last five overall.  Head to head, the teams have split their last ten meetings but there is something of an unusual twist in that each has won 4 of the last 5 in their opponent’s building.  It’s pretty much a tossup and since we’re getting a bit of value on the visitor we’ll back the Flyers to continue the head to head trend with the Bruins and make the visiting team 4-0 in outdoor NHL regular season play.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA +120 OVER BOSTON