We’ll try to get back on the winning track after a couple of back-to-back losses.  One thing that you learn if you’ve been handicapping as long as I have (and I was offering parlay cards on kickball games in elementary school) is that not all losses are created equal.  Sometimes you’ll lose a play and smack yourself in the head and ask ‘what was I thinking’ and vow to never make that kind of play again.  Other times you’ll lose a play and based on all of the data and information you had going in you would pull the trigger again in the same set of circumstances.  That was the kind of play the loss on the Montreal/Columbus was, and I’d play that game under again if I had to do it over.

That’s one of the important differences between successful handicappers and ’squares’:  successful handicappers aren’t quick to change their methodology based on a couple of losses.  ’Squares’ are quick to abandon a team after a bad loss and jump on a bandwagon after a good performance, which is one of the reasons that going against the ‘public’ is such a successful strategy in sports betting.  The ‘public’ is always zigging when they should zag, and always overreacting to short term phenomena in sports betting.

Anyway, its Thanksgiving here in the US but since they celebrate Thanksgiving in October up in Canada we’ve got two NHL games on the schedule.  We’ll give you a totals play in the Ottawa/Columbus game.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS VS. OTTAWA SENATORS

Steve Mason should be back in net for the Jackets tonight after Montreal native Mathieu Garon got the start against the Canadiens on Tuesday.  That didn’t help our play on the under but that’s the way the puck bounces.  The problem for the Jackets (and the good news for us vis a vis this play) is that Mason has been in sketchy form all year himself, with a goals against average of 3.59 on the season.  Compare that against his standout rookie performance last year, when he posted a 2.29 goals against average and you’ve got all of the makings of a sophomore slump.  Columbus has stepped up its offensive performance, which is why they’re not in freefall this year.  They’re tied for 6th in scoring offense and Ottawa is tied for 8th, both averaging 3 or more goals per game.  The problem is that the Blue Jackets are 29th in the 30 team NHL in scoring defense (3.52 goals a game) and the Senators are also in the lower half of the table at 20th with 2.86 goals per game.  Ottawa’s starting goalie Pascal LeClaire recently suffered a broken cheekbone so chances are his backup Brian Elliot will get the start here.  Elliot has only started 37 games in his NHL career, so the jury is still out on how he’ll respond to everyday duty.

So we’ve got two teams that can score goals, two goaltenders that are something of a question mark and they’re playing each other.  So we’re going to look over the total.  The Blue Jackets have gone over in 11 of their 13 road games this year, and this series has been an over dominated affair with 5 of the last 8 head to head exceeding the total.  Columbus has gone over in three straight, while Ottawa has gone over in 3 of 4.  This one should go over the total as well.

PLAY OTTAWA/COLUMBUS OVER 5′ -120

Related posts:

1. NHL Free Play for 11/24/09: Blue Jackets Required
2. NHL Free Play for 12/10/09: Southern Fried Hockey and a review
3. NHL Free Picks: Blue Jackets in the Desert
4. NHL Free Play for 12/9/09: Learnin’ the Blues
5. NHL Free Play for 12/11/09: Blackhawks Down