Sunday’s play went nothing at all like we handicapped it, with the Vancouver Canucks limiting the Chicago Blackhawks to a mere 17 shots on goal.  Thanks to some good goaltending on the other end of the ice, however, we got a winner anyway.  We’ll go back to a totals play today:

BOSTON BRUINS VS. ST. LOUIS BLUES

One of the biggest stories of the early part of the NHL season has been the struggles of the Boston Bruins.  Last year, the Bruins missed winning the President’s Trophy for the NHL’s best record by a single point.  This year, they’ve been kicking around playing just over .500 hockey and are currently mired in third place in the Northeast Division.  Their biggest problem has been scoring goals:  they’ve only put 53 pucks in the opposing net this year, which is among the worst offensive numbers in the NHL.  St. Louis, meanwhile, is dead last in the NHL in goals scored with 48.  Despite that meager offensive output they’ve been able to play .500 hockey due to good defense and goaltending.  St. Louis is fifth in the league in goals against average (2.40 GA per game) right ahead of Boston at #6 (2.41 goals per game).

Here’s where things get a bit strange:  despite Boston’s dominant performance in recent years the Blues have owned the head to head series dating back over a decade.  St. Louis is on a 13-2-2 run against Boston and a 7-1 run at home.  In other words, the Blues have plenty of confidence against the Bruins and should be able to keep this game at their preferred tempo.  Worth noting that Bruins’ starting goalie Tim Thomas is questionable for this game, but that’s really a non-issue since his backup Tukka Rask actually has a marginally better goals against average.

No real value in laying the chalk price on St. Louis, which leaves us staring at one of the lowest totals of the NHL season.  That’s an essential lesson for anyone who wants to take sports gambling seriously, and one I was taught very early in life at the now defunct Stardust Race and Sportsbook in Las Vegas.  A ‘wise guy’ was explaining to me the difference between sharps and squares and gave me the following piece of advice: “A square sees the lowest total on the board and thinks ‘over’.  A sharp sees the lowest total on the board and thinks ‘under’”.  While that may be oversimplifying things somewhat, its important to not be afraid to go under low numbers and over high ones.  They’re priced that way for a reason.  The Bruins have gone under in 9 of their last 12 games, while the Blues have 8 unders, two overs and a push in their last eleven games.  In a matchup between two weak offenses and two solid defenses, that’s how we’ll play it.

PLAY ST. LOUIS/BOSTON UNDER 5 +105