The sportsbooks have a decent slate of NHL betting opportunities on the board, and we’ll head north of the border as the San Jose Sharks head to the Air Canada Centre to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs.  And, no, I have no idea what is going on in the picture accompanying the article.  It’s not Darryl Sittler or Dave ‘Tiger’ Williams, that’s for sure…

Matchup here between one of the league’s best teams against one of the worst. The San Jose Sharks are leading the Western Conference by four points over Chicago.  Sharks have been tearing it up lately, with a 8-1-1 mark in their last 10 games but there’s only one problem–they’ve actually lost ground in the chase for the best overall record in the league as the Washington Capitals just don’t lose any more (Caps have now won 14 straight games).  Toronto, meanwhile, is tied for last place in the Eastern Conference with Carolina.  Unfortunately for the Leafs, the Hurricanes are heading in the opposite direction–Carolina has won 7 of 10 while Toronto has only 3 wins in their last 10 games.

SAN JOSE SHARKS VS. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

As noted above, Sharks clicking on all cylinders while the Leafs aren’t.  Here’s the bigger problem for Toronto–San Jose is among the best offensive teams in the league ranking #2 in goals per game behind Washington.  Compounding that problem is that Toronto gives up more goals per game than any team in the NHL.  *Further* compounding that problem is the fact that Toronto just lost their best defenseman Michael Komisarek with a season ending shoulder injury.

Despite the overwhelming superiority of the Sharks in every phase of the game, we’re not going to back them here.  Over the long haul, backing -160 favorites on the road isn’t going to turn out well.  Instead, we’re going to play this game ‘Over’ the total.  We’re getting a reasonable number to work with here due to San Jose’s tough defense.  Sharks rank #3 in the league in goals against per game, and that gives us a total lower than 6 which has been the norm in Toronto games this season.  Despite their defensive tenacity, Sharks are on a mega-run to the ‘Over’ in the second half of the season.  They’ve gone OV in 6 straight and 9 of their last 10 games.  Since they’ve also *won* eight of those games it becomes a ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ situation.  Toronto has a middling offense, but they’ve also gone ‘Over’ in 7 of their L11 games.  These teams haven’t played much in the past couple of years, last facing off in December of 2008 (a game that went ‘Over’) but 7 of their L10 meetings in Toronto have gone ‘Over’.  Sharks scoring at will, Leafs can’t stop anyone from scoring and we’re looking for San Jose’s ‘Over’ run to continue.

PLAY SAN JOSE/TORONTO OVER 5′ +100