….with apologies to an actual Canadian, Michael J. Fox.   The NHL regular season is in the books, and the Stanley Cup playoffs will get underway later this week.  We’ll have plenty of NHL betting action on the individual games, but this is a good time to take some futures positions on the better value teams.  Somewhere on my various computer hard drives I’ve got an overview article about futures betting theory that I’ll post later this week, but we’ll go ahead and take some positions while we can get some good prices.

The general idea at this stage isn’t so much trying to pick a winner, but to take a good price that will hopefully give us some hedge opportunities down the road.  I’ll update these as the playoffs progress, but deciding when to start ‘buying back’ against these positions is sort of like ‘playing chicken’.  The longer you wait the better, but obviously if you’ve taken a position on a team that gets eliminated early there’s not much you can do about it.  On the other hand, if you have good prices on teams that are able to make it through a couple of rounds it sets up a variety of profitable options.

This season sets up nicely for some ‘speculative’ future plays as the favorite has some serious liabilities.  Currently, Washington is favored at most sportsbooks.  You can’t deny their regular season success, they were downright dominant on their home ice (only 5 losses in regulation this season) and very good on the road.  They’ve got arguably the best player in the game in Alex Ovechkin and can score like Tiger Woods in a strip club.  The big question about Washington is their defense and goaltending, which is decidedly mediocre.

After Washington, you’ve got a couple of Western Conference teams in San Jose and Chicago.  These teams are likely overvalued at this point as well and there are questions about both.   Whether or not its valid, there’s some concern about Chicago’s toughness–late in the regular season opposing teams had some degree of success by getting physical with the Blackhawks.  That notwithstanding, Chicago is a very dangerous team that’s got the #3 ranked offense in the NHL combined with a top 5 defense.

San Jose has had their share of problems in the playoffs in recent years.  They’re sort of like the Utah Jazz were during much of the Stockton/Malone era in that they tear it up during the regular season but don’t advance very far in the playoffs.  In some ways they’ve got a more dangerous first round opponent in Colorado than Chicago does with Los Angeles.  The Sharks have a solid statistical pedigree, ranked #4 in scoring offense and #8 in scoring defense but they’ve got to demonstrate that their recent postseason struggles aren’t the proverbial ‘monkey on their back’.  Last season you’ll recall San Jose finished with the best record in the NHL only to lose to Anaheim in the first round.

In recent years, you’ve seen a number of teams that fly under the radar during the regular season and start to peak in the playoffs.   Carolina and Tampa Bay won Stanley Cups in years that few considered them serious contenders.  Last season, the Hurricanes shocked both #3 seed New Jersey and #1 seed Boston before being eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.     We’re looking for teams that have the potential of pulling some upsets and taking positions on them at very attractive prices.

The prices we’ll use here are from BetOnline but as always shop them around.  Future prices vary widely from book to book and a little extra effort at this point can prove very valuable down the road.  Since the Western Conference was much stronger top to bottom than the East this year we’ll take our positions accordingly.

STANLEY CUP FUTURES:

PHOENIX COYOTES +1200: The ‘secret’ of this Phoenix team is out, but I’ve seen them as high as +1850 in the past couple of hours.  The Coyotes have been playing grind ‘em out playoff type hockey all year.  They’re not a dominant offensive team (ranked #27 in the NHL) but they’re a nasty defensive team that gets great goaltending from Ilya Bryzgalov.  They’ve been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season and will be a handful for any team. They ended the regular season with 107 points–only Washington, San Jose and Chicago have more.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS +6000: Preds will be a very dangerous first round opponent for the Vancouver Canucks.  Nashville’s home and away records are nearly identical, while Vancouver is the only playoff bound team in the Western Conference with a losing record on the road.  Canucks can score goals–they’re #2 behind Washington in that department–but there are some serious concerns about their play in the defensive zone.  Long story short, they make Roberto Luongo face way too many shots.  Nashville is getting great goaltending from Pekka Rinne and they’ve got a very capable backup in Dan Ellis.  Getting a team that finished the season with 100 points at 60/1 odds has ‘value’ written all over it.  The Detroit Red Wings also have 100 points and they’re +600.  Philadelphia is also priced at +6000 and if they lose to the Rangers today they won’t even *make* the playoffs.

Some interest in Colorado–they’re +8000 at BetOnline though despite the higher price they’re nowhere near as good of a value as Nashville.  Avs probably wouldn’t justify a play, but if the Sharks suffer another first round collapse they’ll be the beneficiary.  Colorado stumbled down the stretch, losing 7 of 10 heading into their final game on Sunday.  Some think that entering the playoffs with momentum is an overrated virtue but its much more important in hockey than basketball.  Colorado has a very potent offense (ranked #6 in the NHL) but only a passable defense.  Not sold on Craig Anderson in goal.

In the East, Boston may be worth a shot if you can find a good price.  BetOnline has them at +4000–hard to justify a play on them at a lower price than Nashville.  Bruins are similar to the Calgary Flames–they have a horrendous offense ranked dead last in the NHL but they’ve got a nasty defense which has been among the best in the league all year.  Currently they’re ranked #2 in the NHL behind New Jersey.  They’ve got a great goaltending tandem with veteran Tim Thomas backing up rookie Tuukka Rask who leads the NHL with a 1.97 goals against average.  The playoff seedings in the East won’t be set until after Sunday’s games and if the Bruins wind up meeting Buffalo in the first round they’re worth a shot–they won the season series from the Sabres–but are less attractive against either New Jersey or Pittsburgh.  With the way Rask has played this year, he could do what Jean Sebastian Giguere did for the Ducks in 2003 but without a favorable first round matchup he won’t get the chance.