One of the bigger Monday Night Football matchups of the season goes tonight as Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots head down to the ‘Big Easy’ to try and spoil the undefeated season of Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.  The Patriots looked sharp against the New York Jets last week and showed no ill effects of Belichick’s now infamous ‘go for it’ on 4th down deep in his own territory in the Indianapolis game.  New Orleans was back in form last week as they beat down hapless Tampa Bay after a run of games where the margin of victory was much closer than expected.  So let’s get to tonight’s action:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The kneejerk reaction is to take the Pats plus the points, as many think they’ll be the ones to finish off the Saints’ undefeated season.  I’m not so sure of that.  Not that there’s much recent precedent to work with as New England has only been an underdog on three occasions in the last three years.  They’re 2-1 ATS in those games but have lost all three straight up.  Obviously in this price range you’re looking for the outright win, and even with injuries to the Saints’ defensive backs I’m not convinced that Brady et. al. can trade points with Drew Brees and company.

Still, I think both teams will put enough points on the board to push this over the total.  Saints are now over in 14 of their last 18 games at home, and four of the last five head to head meetings have gone over.  Saints are averaging 36.9 PPG, while New England averaging 29 PPG.  The Patriots have also gone over in 7 of their last 11 non-conference games.  This one has ‘shootout’ written all over it and without any concerns about the weather (being as its in a dome and all) we look for both teams to put 30+ points on the scoreboard which will cash the over with relative ease.  If I had to take a position on the side, I’d probably get all contrarian and go with the Saints.  The total looks to be the stronger play.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND/NEW ORLEANS OVER 56

Related posts:

1. NFL Free Picks #2–Shuffle off to Buffalo
2. NFL Locks of the Week: 3 Free Picks for Week 10
3. NFL Locks of the Week: 2 Free Picks for Wildcard Weekend
4. NFL Free Picks: Shipping Up To Boston
5. Monday Night Football Recap: Saints Brees Past Patriots