NFL Football Free Picks

The most significant Superbowl betting selection is the pointspread winner between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts.  At this writing, most sportsbooks have the Colts as a -4′ or -5 favorite.  Bodog is an exception, offering +6 on the Saints with a -120 moneyline and -6 on the Colts at +100.  Bookmaker currently has the Colts as a -5′ choice.

As is typically the case in Superbowl betting, the early money came in on the favored Colts and the ‘Over’.  We’ve since had some buyback on the Saints, but the total hasn’t really moved downward.  My initial position on this game was to lay the points with the Colts.  Basically, it came down to Peyton Manning’s experience, the luxury of having a ‘go to’ superstar receiver like Reggie Wayne and the relative superiority of the Colts’ defense.

We’ll get to the ‘main event’ of our week long Superbowl betting preview now, starting with the total on Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. The total for Superbowl 44 opened at 52 and has been bet up since, with most sportsbooks now offering 56′ or 57. It’s at 57 at both Bodog and Bookmaker, and could climb a point or so before kickoff.

First, a little historical perspective.  The O/U number of 57 is now the highest in Superbowl history and barring a freak monsoon hitting South Florida it’ll certainly close as the highest total in the 44 year history of the game.  The previous high was 2008, when the total on the Giants/Patriots Superbowl was set at 55.  That number was never threatened, with the two teams combining for 31 total points.

The next few Superbowl betting posts will focus on prop bets addressing individual player performances.  As we’ve discussed in the past, on balance the astute handicapper is best served making the negative position his first consideration in Superbowl prop bets.  The reason for that is simple–no game attracts as much ‘public’ action as the Superbowl and the casual sports bettor would much rather bet that something *will* happen than for something to *not* happen.  Sportsbooks know this, and will often make the Yes/Over position pay a premium in the moneyline, O/U number, etc.

Indianapolis finished dead last in the NFL in rushing yardage, so obviously they’re not going to all of a sudden become a run oriented team in the Superbowl.  Despite their lack of a productive rushing game, Joseph Addai is a serviceable running back.  Simply stated, however, its not going to be his game to win or lose and for that reason we’ll look for some ‘Under’ positions concerning Addai.  We’ll start with a bet from Bodog on Addai’s total rushing yardage:

One of the more interesting Superbowl betting props available at most sportsbooks involves wagering on who will win the game MVP.  Unlike many of the prop bets we’ve discussed thus far which specifically try to eliminate any direct dependence on the outcome of the game, this is clearly one that has everything to do with who wins and how they do it.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind when betting on a proposition of this sort is to do your ‘due diligence’ and shop around at a variety of sportsbooks for the best prices.  Moneylines can and do vary widely from one place to another, and there’s no reason to take a position at +1000 when you can easily get +1500 at another book.  For this wager we’ll discuss two different strategies, one dealing with the most likely winner and the other offering some good value longshots.