NFL Football Free Picks

The AFC North division has been historically contested between two teams –  the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.  But every few years, like last year, the Cincinnati Bengals step up to the plate and win the division. 

This year the sportsbooks have the Ravens as the favorite to win the AFC North at -210.  They signed Anquan Boldin to give quarterback Joe Flacco a big time receiver.  Flacco has been heralded as some kind of wonder quarterback that came out of left field to play great football.  I haven’t bought into this.  If you have watched a good bit of Raven games you would have seen that he lack the decision under pressure.  Boldin is a great addition to the team, but Flacco still has flaws, but people are willing to look and accept them. 

Prior to the start of every NFL season I have to take a look at the futures for each NFL division, and it is that time of the year again. 

Every year there are the favorites to win the division but you can’t make money betting on the favorite each year.  As anyone knows, what is expected to happen rarely does.  Here is my two cents for the NFC West. 

The San Francisco 49ers is the favorites to win the West this year.  I completely understand this bet and would love it if they weren’t -205.  This could be the year that this team finally jumps up a notch.  They have been rebuilding for the last several seasons but there is still a question at quarterback. 

The most significant Superbowl betting selection is the pointspread winner between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts.  At this writing, most sportsbooks have the Colts as a -4′ or -5 favorite.  Bodog is an exception, offering +6 on the Saints with a -120 moneyline and -6 on the Colts at +100.  Bookmaker currently has the Colts as a -5′ choice.

As is typically the case in Superbowl betting, the early money came in on the favored Colts and the ‘Over’.  We’ve since had some buyback on the Saints, but the total hasn’t really moved downward.  My initial position on this game was to lay the points with the Colts.  Basically, it came down to Peyton Manning’s experience, the luxury of having a ‘go to’ superstar receiver like Reggie Wayne and the relative superiority of the Colts’ defense.

We’ll get to the ‘main event’ of our week long Superbowl betting preview now, starting with the total on Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. The total for Superbowl 44 opened at 52 and has been bet up since, with most sportsbooks now offering 56′ or 57. It’s at 57 at both Bodog and Bookmaker, and could climb a point or so before kickoff.

First, a little historical perspective.  The O/U number of 57 is now the highest in Superbowl history and barring a freak monsoon hitting South Florida it’ll certainly close as the highest total in the 44 year history of the game.  The previous high was 2008, when the total on the Giants/Patriots Superbowl was set at 55.  That number was never threatened, with the two teams combining for 31 total points.