We’ll take a look at the NFL betting selections on this weekend’s conference championship games today starting with the NFC Championship.  Look for the AFC Championship game analysis and selection later this evening.  This game features Drew Brees and the high powered New Orleans Saints’ offense against “The Ol’ Gunslinger” himself, Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings for the right to go to Super Bowl 44 in Miami, Florida.

Historically, the conference championship games have shown a bias toward favorites.  Favorites are 50-27 SU in these games with a 43-22-3 ATS mark.  The bigger the favorite, the more dominant they are against the pointspread.  Favorites of 3′ to 6 points are only 12-12-2 ATS.  The last two NFC Championship games have been won outright by the underdog.  The Minnesota Vikings will be looking to make it three straight wins by the underdog in this game:

MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

There’s no shortage of divergent opinions on Brett Favre.  Some people buy in to his ‘aw shucks’ routine, others see him as a self serving diva.  Regardless of where you stand on Favre personally you’ve got to hand it to the guy–he’s done a hell of a job with Minnesota this year.  Farve is not only playing well, he’s playing smart and minimizing a lot of the mistakes and interceptions that plagued him last year in New York.  He’s got the best QB rating in the NFL, and as far as the overall package may have turned in his best season as a pro this year.  You know he’s not going to be intimidated going into the Saints yard  and that he won’t be overwhelmed by the pressure of the big game.

Drew Brees is certainly no slouch either, but the problem here isn’t on the offensive side of the ball.  The Vikings are the #19 ranked passing defense, while New Orleans is #26.  The Vikings have the #2 rushing defense in the league, while the Saints are 21st.  Total defense is where the disparity is most evident–the Vikings rank 6th in the NFL while the Saints are 25th.  In scoring defense the Saints are 25th while the Vikings are 10th.

Offensively, these teams are evenly matched but statistically there’s a clear edge to the Vikings.  The Saints are most successful when teams make the mistake of trying to ‘trade points’ with them but are much less so when they face a team with an aggressive defense who can make plays on offense.  It’s the basic blueprint the Dallas Cowboys used to end New Orleans’ undefeated run to start the season.  Look for similar effort from the Vikings this week as Favre and company win outright and set up at least one half of the NFL’s dream Super Bowl as ‘The Gunslinger’ makes his last stand.

PLAY MINNESOTA +3′ OVER NEW ORLEANS

Related posts:

1. NFL betting free picks for Monday: Minnesota vs. Chicago
2. Monday Night Football Preview: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
3. NHL betting free picks for Wednesday: Vancouver at Minnesota
4. NFL football betting free picks for Saturday: Baltimore at Indianapolis
5. Favre Comes Back To Minnesota