The NFL playoffs divisional round begins today with two games and continues on Sunday with two more.  The early game between the Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints left me scratching my head, at least from a handicapping standpoint so we’ll pass on that and take a look at the late game.  Fresh from their shocking beatdown of the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens head to Indy’s Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts.

Traditionally, the ‘rule of thumb’ for NFL betting on the playoffs dictated that you look to play on underdogs in the wild card round and then go the other way and look to play on favorites in the divisional round.  From a logical standpoint, that makes a lot of sense as you’ll be backing a rested favorite playing on their home field–not to mention one that was dominant enough during the regular season as to have earned the bye in the first place.  That’s changed somewhat in recent years, and the underdogs in this round have given a good account of themselves.  This is partially due to linemaking factors, as the rested home favorites have become somewhat overvalued at this stage of the playoffs.  Still, its no longer a slam dunk to just play the home favorite at this round of the playoffs.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line for this game opened with Indy as a -7 home favorite, but money has come in on the Ravens and its now as low as -6 at some books.  You can make a good case for the Ravens in this spot.  They looked very good taking care of New England last weekend and played the Colts tough at home during the regular season before dropping a 17-15 decision.   In my opinion, however, much of the public backing of the Ravens here is based on their performance last week and not anything intrinsic to this matchup that suggests a good wagering value.  Baltimore very likely played its best game of the year last week to advance to this round, and that could leave them somewhat flat in this matchup.

The Colts have lost at the divisional level all three times they’ve had a first round bye in the Manning era.  Their defensive front isn’t exactly known for its run stuffing abilities, so Ray Rice could have a big day.  The Ravens formula for success is simple–good defense, strong rushing attack and limiting the mistakes of second year QB Joe Flacco.  The problem here is that while they may run the ball effectively against Indy they’ve got a lot of injuries in their secondary and that’s something that Peyton Manning should be able to exploit.  Flacco has played well within the Ravens’ system, but the fact remains that he’s not thrown for more than 161 yards in any of his four career playoff games.  That’s not going to get it done against the Colts’ Manning led offense.  Before Indy tanked their final two games they were 14-0 SU/10-4 ATS, and they’ve won 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings against Baltimore.   The Ravens may be able to eat up a lot of clock and sustain long rushing drives but I still see Indy winning this one by more than a touchdown.  At the current price, that’ll bring home the bacon for us.

PLAY INDIANAPOLIS -6 OVER BALTIMORE