We took a look at the NFC Championship Game earlier today and now we’ll turn our attention to the AFC.  The question facing NFL betting enthusiasts as they prepare to place their sportsbook wagers is this:  are the New York Jets legit?  This is a team that was left for dead by their own coach at 7-7 and only made the playoffs because every team they needed to lose lost and they were facing two teams that rested starters in the final week.  Will they have anything for NFL MVP Peyton Manning and his efficient and experienced Colts?

The statistical history of the game doesn’t bode well for the Jets.  Favorites of 7′ to 9 points are a dominant 14-4 ATS in NFL Championship games since 1970.  On the other hand, the New York Giants won outright over Green Bay in 2007 as +7′ road underdogs so there is some precedent suggesting the Jets can not only cover but prevail.

NEW YORK JETS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:

All week on the mainstream sports media you’ll hear the chattering that the Jets are a ‘Cinderella story’ and that they have somehow overachieved to get to this point.  Don’t believe it.  This Jets team is no joke.  For a team with so many rookies playing key roles and, for that matter, a rookie head coach it was inevitable that they would have their ups and downs this year.  The team has gelled and matured at the right time and they’re *very* dangerous.  Just ask the San Diego Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals.

Last week, there were pundits that suggested that the Baltimore Ravens would be able to go into Indianapolis and use their physical defense and rushing attack to at least be competitive, if not pull the outright upset.  Baltimore did a decent job slowing down Indy’s high octane offense, but had no answer for Indy’s underrated defense.  The Colts statistically may not have an impressive defense (they ranked #18 in the NFL in total defense) but they got the job done.

In many ways, this matchup is ‘deja vu all over again’ except the Jets are ranked #1 in both rushing and total defense.  Then again, they start a rookie at QB in Mark Sanchez compared to Baltimore’s 2nd year QB Joe Flacco.  The Jets’ rushing dominance is no fluke, as they’ve got a great running back duo with rookie Shonn Greene and veteran Thomas Jones.  New York’s offensive line is playing great football in front of them, and we expect the Jets’ more powerful running backs to have more success against the Colts’ speedy defense than Baltimore did.

Most significantly, the Jets actually believe they can win.  To paraphrase Kevin Costner as Crash Davis in the classic movie “Bull Durham” they’re playing with “fear and arrogance” (as opposed to “fear and ignorance”).  And while there’s no reason to expect that Peyton Manning and company will come unravelled if things don’t go their way like San Diego did last week, there’s every reason to expect that the Jets potent combination of defense and rushing can keep this game close.   I look for the Colts to escape with a hard fought victory, but the outright upset wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

PLAY NEW YORK JETS +7′ OVER INDIANAPOLIS