Good day at the office…er…sportsbook…yesterday as we hit our NFL play on Indianapolis as well as our NBA play on the Utah Jazz.  We’ll be back to NFL betting action here in the late game for Sunday as the New York Jets head west to take on the San Diego Chargers.  The Jets are the Jason Voorhees of the NFL–they were left for dead in November by everyone including their own coach.  We all know what happened then–the rose up wearing a hockey mask and went on a bloody killing spree of horny teenagers.  No, wait…they won five of their last six games and got every break to go their way to make the playoffs.  And to keep our horror movie conceit going, you have to go back to before ‘Halloween’ to find the last time that the San Diego Chargers lost a football game.  Since their 10/19 loss to Denver they’ve won 11 straight games going 7-3-1 ATS.

NEW YORK JETS VS. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

This game is very similar to yesterday’s Indy/Baltimore game, with the Jets in the role of the smashmouth defensive team and the Chargers in the role of the pass happy offensive juggernaut.   The difference is that the Jets are better in that role than the Ravens while the Chargers are more vulnerable.  The Jets have evolved into a real scary team over the last month of the season.  Leading the league in rushing *and* scoring defense is a pretty nasty combination for a wild card team and, for our purposes, a touchdown plus underdog.

Making it even more attractive is that the things that the Jets do well are precisely the Chargers’ greatest liabilities.  The Chargers are ranked #20 in rushing defense and are 29th in rushing offense.  Of course their passing game is pretty impressive as QB Phillip Rivers keeps getting better and better.  When your quarterback is throwing for 4000+ yards and 28 TDs a year it kinda takes pressure off the run game.

Obviously, like all home favorites at this stage of playoffs the Chargers have a lot working in their favor–they actually have more momentum coming in than the Jets, they’re rested and they’re playing at home.  Still, I have to like the Jets’ ability to keep this one close.  If the Jets can run the ball against the Chargers’ defense–and the statistical analysis suggests they can–that keeps Mark Sanchez from having to do things that are beyond the ability of a rookie quarterback.  Eventually, I see the Chargers emerging victorious but I won’t be surprised if its by a FG margin.  Hard to pass up the opportunity to take the #1 ranked rushing game and #1 ranked defense getting so many points.

PLAY NEW YORK JETS +9 OVER SAN DIEGO