In a matchup between a pair of 7-7 NFL teams, the Miami Dolphins will welcome the Houston Texans to Land Shark Stadium for a 10 AM Pacific/1 PM Eastern game.  Both the Dolphins and Texans were involved in close contests last weekend, with Miami losing by 3 at Tennessee while Houston defeated St. Louis by the same margin.  Both teams are technically still alive in the playoff hunt, though for all practical purposes have been eliminated.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Miami Dolphins have never beaten the Houston Texans, with the 2002 expansion team holding a 4-0 mark all time.  That may not have much relevance to NFL betting analysis for this game, but here’s something that does:  the Miami Dolphins have been one of the worst home favorites in the NFL during recent years.  They’re a respectable 3-3 ATS at home this year, but have failed to cover 7 of their last 10 on their own field.  Over the past three seasons, they’re a miserable 6-16 ATS when laying points at home.  Houston, meanwhile is a decent road team and have covered 7 of their last 11 away games.

There’s a lot of matchup advantages for Houston as well.  Miami succeeded to a great extent last season by playing mistake free football with a NFL low 13 turnovers.  They’ve turned the ball over 26 times this year.  Houston has the much more explosive offense, with QB Matt Schaub putting up 8 300 yard games this season (second only to Peyton Manning).  Miami’s secondary is very inexperienced, and ripe for exploitation.  On offense, the Dolphins have become overly dependent on Ricky Williams since Ronnie Brown suffered a season ending injury.  Chad Henne is a decent young QB, but at this point he’s not going to be able to trade touchdowns with Schaub.

Overall, its a bad tactical matchup for Miami.  If you were paying attention during our discussion of NFL home field advantages, you’ll recognize that with Miami priced as a -1′ point favorite it means that on a neutral field linesmakers are pegging the Texans as the superior team.  We concur, and will gladly play them as small dogs against a team that has lost a ton of money as a home chalk.

PLAY HOUSTON +1′ OVER MIAMI