Back to the NBA for Sunday, and we’ll have some college football bowl picks for you later today.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. BOSTON CELTICS:

There’s certainly nothing ‘wrong’ with the Boston Celtics, despite coming off a loss in this game.  Prior to a 1 point setback to Philadelphia on Friday night all Boston had done is rip off 11 straight victories, and are neck and neck with the Los Angeles Lakers for the NBA’s best record at 20-5.  Minnesota, on the other hand, has been a bottom feeder all year with only five wins all season.

But guess which team has been the better pointspread investment?  I’ll give you a hint–they don’t have a bunch of NBA Championship banners flying from the ceiling of their home arena.  That’s right, true believers, the Minnesota Timberwolves may be a pitiful 5-22 straight up but they’re 14-13 against the spread.  And despite that glossy .800 winning percentage straight up, the Boston Celtics are under the ‘Mendoza line’ against the spread with a record of 11-14.

This matchup is perfect example of the importance of being a contrarian in sports betting.  Clearly, the Celtics are the better team but they’re a team overvalued by the general public and this is reflected in the pointspread.  The Timberwolves, conversely, are a team only their mothers could love but their lack of popularity and on court success means that to attract action to Minnesota on a nightly basis linesmakers have to shade the pointspreads the other way–meaning instant line value.

It gets better–despite their lack of SU success, the TWolves are playing better and becoming more competitive.  They’ve covered 9 of their last 11 games overall.  Boston’s pointspread record in the last 12 games–during which they went 11-1 SU–was only 6-6 ATS with only one pointspread cover in their last five games.  They’ve only covered 2 of their last 11 spots as double digit favorites, are 4-8 ATS at home overall and 0-3 as home favorites of more than 12′.  And for those of you who think the Celtics will necessarily want to make a statement after a SU loss?  They’re 0-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  They’re also 4-9 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record.

The point of this isn’t that the Celtics are ‘overrated’.  They may be ‘overvalued’ in terms of the pointspread, but the reality is that they’re a veteran team with good coaching that knows that ‘statement games’ come in May and June during the NBA playoffs, not in December against lottery teams.  The recent games in the series clearly reflect the dynamic we’re talking about as the Celtics have won all five straight up, while the TWolves have gone 4-1 against the spread.

Do the Celtics have the talent to run the TWolves out of the TD BankNorth Garden?  Definitely.  But every bit of empirical data in this matchup suggests that they won’t. Look for a Boston win, but look for Minnesota to stay inside the number.

PLAY MINNESOTA +14 OVER BOSTON