The Miami Heat continue on a long West Coast road swing with a trip to Northern California to take on the Golden State Warriors.  After opening the trip with a win at Phoenix the Heat have lost two straight both SU and ATS against the LA Clippers and Utah Jazz.  Making matters worse for Miami, Dwyane Wade is suffering with a sprained wrist and is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game.  He’s being re-evaluated this morning upon the team’s arrival in the Bay Area so there should be some announcement of his status later this afternoon.  It really doesn’t impact our NBA basketball betting position one way or the other, but clearly Miami’s success revolves around D-Wade:

MIAMI HEAT VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

I won’t go so far and call the Golden State Warriors a good team, but they have been a good pointspread investment for NBA basketball bettors in certain situations this year.  As we’ve discussed before, with the qualitative imbalance top to bottom between the East and West this year we look for situations to play accordingly and this fits into that concept nicely.  Making it even more effective, is that while the Warriors aren’t a good enough team for opponents to get ‘up’ for playing them their up-tempo style is a significant matchup adjustment and particularly for Eastern Conference teams that don’t see it frequently.  The Warriors have gone 9-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference this season, and much of that is likely due to their up-tempo style.  Miami, meanwhile, has struggled out West with a 6-11 ATS mark.

Golden State has also performed well for bettors at home, where they’re 10-5 ATS.   Since Christmas they’ve been a better investment than gold bullion, getting the money in eight of their last nine games.  These teams haven’t played since 2008 but the Warriors covered both of those matchups this year.  With the Heat in the middle of the road trip grind fatigue could be an issue and D-Wade’s injury doesn’t help things.  Warriors win and cover as small favorites here.

PLAY GOLDEN STATE -2′ OVER MIAMI