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NBA betting on Saturday’s crowded sportsbook dance card takes us to Miami where the Atlanta Hawks head south to take on the Heat.  Miami has been off since their OT victory against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night, while Atlanta played last night at home holding off a tough challenge from the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are in third place in the Eastern Conference, two games behind 2nd place Orlando.  Miami is trying to hang on to the #8 and final playoff position, leading Charlotte by 1 game.

MIAMI HEAT VS. ATLANTA HAWKS:

We’ve talked about how hard it is to figure out this Heat team on several occasions this year–they can play well enough to beat the defending NBA champs on some nights and look like an expansion team on other nights.  One thing is certain and that’s their home record of 16-14 SU/13-17 ATS isn’t particularly impressive.  The Hawks, meanwhile, have a winning road record at 15-14 SU good for a 17-12 pointspread mark.   Miami has played their best this year as an underdog–as a favorite they’re 12-17 ATS and the Heat are 1-3 both SU and ATS this year as a home favorite of 3 or less.  They’ve only covered 2 of their L7 home games.

Both teams are solid on the defensive end–the Heat are #5 in the NBA in PPG allowed and the Hawks are #11.  Atlanta is better on the offensive end of the court where they have a variety of weapons, while the Heat have a tendency to over-rely on Dwayne Wade to generate offense.  Not surprisingly, the head to head record has a strong bias to the Under with 13 of 18 overall and 7 of 8 in Miami going Under the total.  2 of the 3 meetings this year have gone Under and the one that *did* exceed the total–a 105-90 Hawks victory in Atlanta with a posted total of 191–wasn’t exactly a shootout.  We’ll go with the Hawks and the Under here.

PLAY ATLANTA +1′ OVER MIAMI
PLAY ATLANTA/MIAMI UNDER 188