Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942
Thanks to a rainy weekend we’ve got a doubleheader of NASCAR races on Monday from Texas Motor Speedway. The Sprint Cup race we’ll go first, starting at 12 noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific. Today’s forecast calls for cool temperatures and cloudy skies, but no rain is expected meaning that the race will most likely take place as scheduled.
Texas is a tough track to handicap, at least based on past performance, since the management has changed its configuration twice. Throw in the changes brought about by NASCAR’s so called ‘Car of Tomorrow’ and the conditions of the track and the racing that occurs on it have changed several times. Despite that, the drivers that have done well before the track configuration changes have done well since and a lot of what horse racing enthusiasts would call ‘track bias’ still looks to be valid.
NASCAR–SAMSUNG MOBILE 500 AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY:
When handicapping NASCAR, we first try to come up with a list of ‘likely’ winners. This is based on track bias factors, drivers’ previous performance at the track, recent form, starting position, and a few other statistical factors. Once we’ve come up with our list we start to narrow it down further using more rigorous statistical analysis from the season to date and the specific track. This gives us a shorter list, and at this point we start to put together a betting ticket.
There have been 18 Sprint Cup races run at Texas since 1997. Starting in 2005, NASCAR has run twice per season at Texas. Curiously, there have only been two drivers who’ve won more than once here–Carl Edwards and Jeff Burton. 14 of the 18 winners have started from the 8th position or better. On some tracks, you’ll see that a bias toward drivers with good starting slots changes over time–for example, on older tracks you’ll see that its not as strong over the past ten years as back in the day with giants like Richard Petty, Junior Johnson and David Pearson terrorized the ‘old school’. At Texas, however, its held up pretty well with only 1 of the last 8 and 2 of the last 10 winners starting further back than 8th. So we’ll take the top 8 drivers and look for those who’ve performed well on this track–these prices are from BoDog and BetUS but as always shop them around.
TO WIN:
45% of wager on Tony Stewart +700
35% of wager on Kyle Busch +700
20% of wager on Clint Bowyer +1600
MATCHUPS:
Our matchup formula is pretty simple–we look at a variety of factors and determine which of the pair has performed better on the given track. We then look for better performing drivers at good prices. Here’s a couple:
Kyle Busch -105 over Kurt Busch
Matt Kenseth -110 over Mark Martin
Kenseth has only one once here, but has the best average finish of any driver. He’s finished in the top 9 in 8 of the last 9 races here.
TweetLeave a Reply


- Best Live Score Sites – NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, CFL, Golf, Tennis and Soccer
- How Not To Rob A Sportsbook
- NASCAR Betting Free Picks: Daytona 500
- Winter Olympics Betting: Total Medal Count
- Handicapping the ‘new’ Arena Football League
- Tips On Betting The Superbowl: Part 2 of 2
- Tips On Betting The Superbowl: Part 1 of 2
- NFL football betting: Handicapping the wild card round
- College football betting: handicapping the ‘late’ bowl games
- Handicapping final week NFL betting
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942

- September 13th, 2016
Tiger Woods returning to competitive golf - September 12th, 2016
Formula 1 sold for $4.4 billion - August 29th, 2016
Russian hockey player Damir Ryspayev handed lifetime ban - August 29th, 2016
Russia booted out of 2016 Paralympics - August 15th, 2016
Swimmer Michael Phelps could be greatest Olympian of all time - August 9th, 2016
Golfer Jim Furyk makes PGA history with score of 58 - August 1st, 2016
American golfer Jimmy Walker takes the PGA Championship - July 25th, 2016
Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady finally accepts four-game suspension - July 19th, 2016
Henrik Stenson wins 2016 British Open in record fashion - July 19th, 2016
2016 ESPY Award Winners announced
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942