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NASCAR Betting Free Picks: Auto Club 500 – SportsUntapped.com
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Added February 21st, 2010 by David Glisan

NASCAR Betting Free Picks:  Auto Club 500
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NASCAR heads to Fontana, California this week for the Auto Club 500.  We had a near miss with our play on Kevin Harvick in the Daytona 500 last weekend–he was leading the race late only to get shuffled back after a yellow flag with only a few laps remaining and would eventually finish 7th.  We’ll try to put one in the winner’s circle this weekend.

Over the next couple of weeks we’ll talk about some more advanced NASCAR handicapping concepts. What I typically like to do with ‘To Win’ wagers is identify a few drivers capable of winning and splitting up my wager in such a way that if either of them win we’ll turn a profit.  We’ll talk more about this down the road, but its pretty self explanatory.


As was the case last week, we’ll start our handicapping by talking about some common characteristics of drivers that have won at Fontana.  14 of the 19 previous Sprint Cup series races held at this track were won from the 20th starting position or higher, with only 1 being won from further back than 25.  That helps us narrow down our drivers under consideration and we’ll eliminate Jeff Gordon based on his 28th starting slot.  Gordon finished 2nd in both Fontana races last year.

The two most dominant drivers on this track in recent years have been Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson.  Kenseth is the defending race winner and has won it 3 of the L4 years.  He’s finished better than 7th in 8 of his L9 starts here and has the best average finish of drivers with 15+ starts at Fontana.  Jimmie Johnson has won on this track four times.  His recent form at the track is the best in the field, and he has the best average finish in the past 4, 6, 8 and 10 races.  Johnson starts 7th, Kenseth 20th so they’re both within our starting position profile and we’ll use them in our mix.

The prices below are from Bodog but as always shop these lines around.  What we’ll do is split up our wager and alot 80% to Johnson and 20% to Kenseth which will give us a nice profit if either driver wins.

PLAY JIMMIE JOHNSON +375 TO WIN AUTO CLUB 500 (75% of wager)
PLAY MATT KENSETH +1500 TO WIN AUTO CLUB 500 (25% of wager)

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2 Responses to “NASCAR Betting Free Picks: Auto Club 500”

  1. Bob says:

    Looks like Jimmie Johnson is back. Luck was on his side with that pit stop, but he ran a good race and had a strong enough car to hold off Harvick at the end.

  2. David Glisan says:

    Johnson was a beast at California. As a NASCAR fan you’re well aware that even the good drivers need a little ‘racing luck’ here and there to pick up victories. That’s one of the challenging things about handicapping the races from a betting perspective. Even if you figure out who has the best car on the track in a given week there’s no guarantee they’ll win. We had Kevin Harvick at Daytona and he arguably had the strongest car in the field and looked like he was poised to win. Then he falls out of the draft late and gets shuffled back and winds up 7th. Believe me, I was hoping that NASCAR was going to call the race early when he was leading and they put out the red flag to deal with the ‘pothole’ problems but it wasn’t to be. In any case, thanks for your comment!

    [WORDPRESS HASHCASH] The poster sent us ‘0 which is not a hashcash value.

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