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Monday Night Football: Vikings @ Packers – SportsUntapped.com
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Added November 14th, 2011 by Chalk

Monday Night Football: Vikings @ Packers
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The Green Bay Packers are a perfect 8-0 halfway through the regular season. Of those eight wins, Green Bay’s lowest margin of victory came by six points on the road against the then 1-5 Minnesota Vikings, with rookie quarterback Christian Ponder making his first NFL start. Monday night, 22 days after their first meeting, the Vikings return to play the Packers as 14-point underdogs.

If you just look at the records, 2-6 at 8-0, the two-touchdown spread looks right. But only two of Green Bay’s eight wins this season have come by more than 11 points: both were home games against pretty awful teams, the pre-Tebow Denver Broncos (49-23) and the then-winless St. Louis Rams (24-3). Only one of Minnesota’s six losses was by more than a touchdown (a primetime road debacle against the Chicago Bears in Donovan McNabb’s final start as Vikings quarterback). Plus, with their bye week, the Vikings have also had 15 days to prepare for the Packers since their last game, their first road win of the season over Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.

Still, this season the Packers are 6-2 against the spread, while the Vikings are 4-3-1 ATS. The Packers won both meetings with the Vikings last year (31-3 in Minnesota in November and 28-24 at Lambeau in September). The Packers haven’t beaten the Vikings by more than five points at home since 2007.

The Over/Under for Monday’s game is 51 points. Five of eight Packers games this season have gone Over, while Vikings games have split evenly, four Over, four Under. Five of eight Packers games have totaled more than 51 points, but only one of eight Vikings games went over 51 points.

If I were a gambling man: I’d take the Vikings to cover and the Under.

 
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