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The San Diego Chargers will need a win on Monday Night Football to stay alone in first place in the AFC West, and will face a tough road test against the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of three straight. The Chargers are three- to 3.5-point favorites (-155 to -170 if you prefer the money line), but a loss at Arrowhead Stadium would drop them into a three-way tie for first with the Chiefs and Raiders.

The Chargers narrowly beat the Chiefs in San Diego in Week 3, winning 20-17 but failing to cover as 14-point home favorites. While San Diego is 4-2 overall, they’re just 2-4 against the spread this year, while the Chiefs at 3-3 in the standing are 4-2 ATS.

The Chargers have won seven of the last eight meetings between these teams. However, the last time they played in Kansas City, the Chiefs shocked the Chargers 21-14 to start the 2010 season on their way to a surprising AFC West championship. And the Chargers have historically struggled at Arrowhead, losing 10 of their 14 games there.

The Over/Under for the game is 44.5 points. Both teams have had three games go Over and three games go Under this season, but five straight Chargers road games have gone Over. Conversely, six of the last eight Chiefs home games have gone Under.  The last three Chargers-Chiefs games have also gone Under.

If I was a gambling man, I’d take the Chargers to cover because I think they’ll bounce back from a tough loss at the Jets last week, and the Under.