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It’s a battle for AFC West supremacy on Monday Night Football as Phillip Rivers and the 3-2 San Diego Chargers host Peyton Manning and the 2-3 Denver Broncos. A primetime win for the Chargers would essentially give them an early 2.5-game lead over the Broncos, but if Denver prevails the two clubs would be tied for first place in the division through six games.

SPREAD: Broncos +1
MONEY LINE: Broncos +105, Chargers -125
OVER/UNDER: 49

Last week, the Broncos were six-point road underdogs and lost 31-21 in New England. Denver has failed to cover in its two road games this season, and is 2-3 ATS overall. The Chargers also failed to cover last week, falling by seven in New Orleans on Sunday Night Football as 3.5-point road underdogs. San Diego is 1-1 ATS at home and 3-2 ATS overall.

The road team won both meetings between the Chargers and Broncos last year, with the Broncos going a long way towards winning the division with a 16-13 win in San Diego last November as four-point road underdogs. Before that win, the Broncos had lost four straight to the Chargers, covering only once.  As for Peyton Manning, the last time he faced the Chargers, his Colts squad lost 36-14 at home in November 2010. The last time Manning played in San Diego was in a playoff game back in January 2009 which saw the Chargers bounce the Colts from the playoffs for the second straight year.

Three of five Broncos games this season have gone Over, as have three of five Chargers games.  The two Denver road games and two San Diego home games this season have split, one Over, one Under. Last season, Denver’s road win over the Chargers went Under, but San Diego’s road win over the Broncos went Over, and that was the third straight season that the two Broncos-Chargers games produced one Over and one Under.

If I were a gambling man, I’d take the Broncos to cover and the Under.