In our previous post, we discussed the basics of how to bet on MMA.  Now, we’ll go over some fundamental handicapping concepts for beginners:

Look To Play On Underdogs: Finding ‘live’ dogs to bet on is a solid strategy in any sports betting pursuit, but it’s essential in MMA.   The reality of the sport is that once you get past the top few fighters there’s a lot of parity.  Furthermore, you’ll often find a fighter favored based on name recognition alone.  For example, one fighter has appeared on the UFC’s ‘Ultimate Fighter’ reality show and will be a favorite against a lower profile opponent simply because he’s more familiar to casual fans.

Further enhancing the parity that exists in MMA is the 5 oz. gloves which make even the top fighters in the sport susceptible to a knockout upset.

Coffee Is For Closers: If you are going to bet on a favorite, make sure he’s a fighter with a proven track record of closing fights early.  MMA is much more difficult than boxing for a top fighter to ‘dictate tempo’ and its difficult to avoid fighting at an opponent’s preferred pace or style.  That fact, combined with fewer rounds, means that you don’t want to sweat when a high priced favorite goes the distance.  A favorite should not only be a top level fighter, but one who has the ability to end them early via KO or submission as opposed to ‘grinding out’ decisions which is a lot more dangerous in MMA than in boxing.

Don’t Overvalue UFC Experience:  The UFC has attempted to convince the media and fight fans that they’re top to bottom superior in terms of talent to any other promotion.  That’s simply not the case.  While most of the UFC champions are likely the top fighters in the world at the weight, once you go down the roster any qualitative advantage over other promotions simply isn’t there.  There are two ways that this will usually come into play.  One is when a fighter leaves the UFC for a smaller promotion.   Another is when a fighter comes into the UFC to face an opponent with experience in ‘the octagon’.  The fact that one fighter has fought in the UFC and one hasn’t is simply irrelevant and you’ll frequently find a good value on the one without it.

Do Your Homework: The MMA handicapper’s best tool is often the countless fight videos posted on YouTube, Daily Motion and similar video sharing sites.  While the UFC is much more strict about enforcing their copyright and keeping their fights off of these sites, most of the smaller promotions are not.  This is a good way to do some research on lower profile fighters moving into the bigger promotions.

Related posts:

1. NFL Handicapping Basics: The Weather
2. NFL Handicapping Basics: Home Field Advantage
3. Handicapping UFC 105: The ‘Big’ Fights
4. College football betting: handicapping the ‘late’ bowl games
5. Handicapping UFC 105: The Undercard