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MLB Betting Free Picks For Monday: San Diego at Florida – SportsUntapped.com
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Added April 26th, 2010 by David Glisan

MLB Betting Free Picks For Monday:  San Diego at Florida
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No NBA action on Monday, but there is a lot of baseball betting opportunities on the board.  We’ll take a look at a National League game between the Florida Marlins and San Diego Padres.  San Diego off to a strong start and they currently lead the NL West with an 11-7 record.  Florida is 10-9 which leaves them in a three way tie for second in the NL East behind Philadelphia.

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. FLORIDA MARLINS:

Hard to figure why Florida is a -150 favorite in this spot.  In theory, we’d agree that Josh Johnson is probably the better pitcher of the two but San Diego’s Mat Latos actually has a lower ERA.  Padres are 4-5 on the road so far this season, but Florida is only 4-3 at home.  The Marlins’ bullpen has been brutal so far this season with a 5.08 ERA while the Padres’ pen is a respectable 3.02.

San Diego was money in the bank against RHP in 2009, particularly in night games where they posted just under 13.50 units of profit.  They’re already showing a similar tendency this season–they’re hitting .268 and averaging 5.2 runs per game against righthanders.  Not surprisingly, they’ve already posted nice profits against RHP with a 10-6 record good for 5.1 units of profit.  Florida was somewhat overvalued at home last season, losing 5.7 units on the year.  Given their bullpen woes and the Padres’ success against RHP we’ll back the underdog.  We’ll also play the game Over the total–the last 6 meetings in Florida between these teams in Miami have exceeded the total and there’s every reason to think this one will as well.

PLAY SAN DIEGO (MATOS) +140 OVER FLORIDA (JOHNSON)
PLAY SAN DIEGO/FLORIDA OVER 8 -120

 
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2 Responses to “MLB Betting Free Picks For Monday: San Diego at Florida”

  1. mike says:

    was looking @ the over total also but when i seen the weather report it put a damper on it….

  2. David Glisan says:

    The gusty winds are admittedly a potential issue, but I figured it was offset by the fact that the humidity was relatively low for South Florida.

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