March Madness betting continues this week with the Sweet 16 and we’ll turn our attention now to the four games on Friday starting with Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State.  Missouri Valley Conference champion Northern Iowa is no fluke, as evidenced by their 30-4 regular season record.  The 9th seeded Panthers faced a brutal draw in the first two rounds, facing a talented UNLV team in their opening game followed by #1 seeded Kansas but here they are.  Michigan State finished third in the Big 10 and were seeded 5th.  They’ve had back to back tough games as well, defeating New Mexico State by 3 and outlasting Maryland by 2.

MARCH MADNESS–MICHIGAN STATE VS. NORTHERN IOWA:

Michigan State caught a tough break against Maryland when their point guard, Kalin Lucas suffered a season ending Achilles’ tendon rupture.  In addition to running the offense, Lucas was the Spartan’s leading scorer and it’ll be tough to replace his 14 PPG.  A bigger problem is the absence of their floor leader against a nasty Northern Iowa defense.  Jayhawks coach Bill Self commented after the game just how good the Panthers’ defense is–he was particularly impressed with how few easy baskets they give up.  That’s going to be a big problem for the Spartans, who only got past Maryland because the Terps gave them open looks and easy buckets.

From a pointspread standpoint, this is a matchup between a pointspread monster in Northern Iowa and a substandard moneymaker in Michigan State.  The Panthers have a 23-10 ATS mark overall, 6-1 both SU and ATS as an underdog and an impressive 18-2 SU/15-5 ATS mark against teams with winning records.  Michigan State is 13-20 overall against the spread, 10-17 ATS as a favorite, 4-10 ATS in non conference games, and 6-15 ATS against teams with winning records.  The Spartans will come to play, but the loss of Lucas will be tough to overcome–particularly against a well coach, defensively tenacious Northern Iowa team.  They’ll win outright and advance to the Elite 8.  We’ll also look to play this game Under the total.  In addition to the obvious factors, worth noting that since 1999 Sweet 16 games with posted totals of 128 or less have gone Under in 11 of 13 spots.  Right now the best line is at BetUS, both on the side and total.

PLAY NORTHERN IOWA +1′ OVER MICHIGAN STATE
PLAY NORTHERN IOWA/MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 122′