We’ll wrap up the Thursday March Madness Betting picks with a look at Kansas State vs. Xavier.  Xavier and Temple finished the Atlantic 10 regular season with idential 14-2 records in conference, though the Owls had a better overall record.  Xavier’s 26-8 mark was certainly worthy of an at-large bid, and they’ve advanced to the Sweet 16 by knocking off Minnesota and Pittsburgh.  Kansas State finished second in the Big 12 to their in-state rivals from the University of Kansas, but got an at large bid with a 28-7 SU record.  They were somewhat in the shadow of their rivals all year, but they’ve gotten the last laugh as they’re still playing while the Jayhawks are at home watching the tournament on TV after getting bumped out by Northern Iowa. KSU defeated North Texas and BYU to advance to the Sweet 16.

MARCH MADNESS–KANSAS STATE VS. XAVIER:

The line on this game opened with K-State a -4 point favorite and has been bet up slightly to -4′.  Both teams were excellent against the pointspread this season–Xavier is 22-11 overall against the spread while Kansas State is 21-9 ATS overall.  As a favorite, the Wildcats are an impressive 18-6 ATS and they were 9-2 ATS in non-conference games.  Xavier was only 3-4 ATS as a dog to this point, but are a solid 10-5 ATS out of conference.  In other words, these are two teams that we’d be looking to ‘play on’ in most situations.

Kansas State has a very deep and physical team, and that’s what really killed BYU.  Of course the Cougars aren’t a team known for their size and athleticism, and they were already beat down by a tough double overtime opening game against Florida.  So the question becomes ‘will K-State’s physical play have the same effectiveness against Xavier that it did against North Texas and BYU?’  In my view, I doubt it.  The Muskateers have already beaten two physical teams to get to this stage, and don’t forget they went toe to toe with their inner city rival Cincinnati earlier this year, pulling out a win in OT.  If anything, the Bearcats are a physical and imposing team–they look like a football team in shorts.  North Texas was simply outclassed and BYU was a favorable matchup for KSU made better by the Coogs tough opening round game.

These teams actually played during the regular season, with Kansas State winning by 15 at home in early December.  It would be a mistake to take too much from that game, however, as non-conference games never demand the same focus from both participants.  More often than not, the team that lost the first time around is able to make adjustments and change the result in a rematch.  At the very least, Xavier won’t be surprised by anything Kansas State does here.  These teams have played each other twice in the past three years, each winning and covering at home.  In terms of talent, they’re very evenly matched and from a tactical standpoint both can deal well with how the other likes to play.  Without a significant advantage in either department the points become the play–we’ll call for Xavier to win outright, but we’ll gladly take as many points as we can get.

PLAY XAVIER +4′ OVER KANSAS STATE