We’ll wrap up our March Madness betting picks on the Sweet 16 with Duke vs. Purdue.  ACC Champion Duke boasts a 31-5 overall record and got to the Sweet 16 by destroying Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 29 points in their opening game followed by a 15 point win over California.  Purdue tied for first place in the Big Ten with Ohio State and Michigan State, and has a 29-5 record overall.  They beat Sienna in the first round followed by a second round win over Texas A&M.

MARCH MADNESS–DUKE VS. PURDUE:

Some very serious thinking men–myself included–have gone against Purdue twice in the NCAA tournament but they’re still standing.  That’s something of a surprise since their offense struggled against weak opposition after leading scorer Robbie Hummel went down in late February, and the thinking was that they’d be easy pickings against NCAA tournament caliber opposition.  So far it hasn’t worked out that way.  The Boilermakers are just an average pointspread team overall and in most situations, though they are an impressive 14-0 SU/9-5 ATS against non-conference opponents this season.

Duke enters with a pointspread record of 20-14, which is even more impressive when you consider that they’re the most obvious ‘public’ team in college hoops and are never overlooked by the linesmaker.  The Blue Devils are also 10-6 ATS in non-conference games and 17-12 ATS against teams with winning records.  The line for this game opened with Duke a -8 point favorite,  with the current price at most books now -8′.

In theory, there’s a lot to be said for taking a strong defensive team getting points like Purdue in this spot.  Without Hummel in the lineup, however, going against such a consistent and efficient offensive team like Duke is a bad matchup.  The Blue Devils seem to always find a way to score and without their best scorer the Boilermakers will be hard pressed to keep up.  Our numbers suggest a Duke victory by a margin right around the pointspread.  Instead, we’ll play this game Under the total–a good defense, no Hummel and an 11-2 run for Sweet 16 totals of 128 or less make this the strongest play in this matchup.

PLAY DUKE/PURDUE UNDER 127′